- Indian iron ore fines export prices rebound
- Chinese market still battling weak steel margins
The Indian iron ore export market displayed positive signs this week due to a recent rise in global indices. A few deals were heard concluded from the east coast, but the physical market is yet to fully reflect the price increases observed on paper. Market participants are remaining cautious as they are waiting for more active transactions in the coming days.
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index remained largely stable w-o-w at $69/t FOB east coast, India, on 20 February 2025. However, prices rose by $2/t against the previous assessment on 17 February. Odisha-based miners sold around 110,000 t of iron ore fines (Fe 57%) at $80/t CFR China recently. In other deals, 75,000 t of fines (Fe57%) were recorded at $67/t FOB concluded a couple of days back. A few more deals a under negotiations.
A market participant commented: “There has been some improvement in global prices in the last couple of days, but buyers remain hesitant due to weak steel margins in China. They are looking for cheaper material, which is keeping bids lower than expected.
The discount for Fe 57% fines remained stable in the range of 19-21%, while Fe 54-55% fines cargoes were offered at a 24-26% discount on the global fines index.
Exporters are currently engaged in negotiations for a few deals, and it is expected that these deals will be finalised in the next few days, given the gradual price recovery. However, the gap between offers and bids has widened, reflecting the cautious sentiment among exporters.
A miner informed on current market dynamics: “We are closely monitoring the market before committing to deals, as there is a possibility that the paper market trends will soon translate into physical transactions.”
Meanwhile, domestic prices remain firm, limiting margins for exporters. The recent Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) auction saw an INR 250/t ($3/t) m-o-m increase in bids for fines, which could raise sourcing costs for low-grade export material for further deals.
A trader said: “With domestic prices on the rise, margins are getting squeezed. We are waiting for further price improvement before making any significant moves.”
Chinese spot prices rangebound w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines prices in China remained largely stable w-o-w at $108/t CFR on 19 February following sluggish seaborne trades. Steel production recovery was met with poor margins, prompting mills to prefer partial shipments over full Capesize cargoes. Additionally, discounted medium-grade cargoes were preferred by steelmakers battling weak margins, sources highlighted.
DCE iron ore futures up: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2025 contract opened at RMB 837/t ($113/t), rising by RMB 29/t ($4/t) w-o-w on 20 February. D-o-d, prices climbed by RMB 16.5/t ($2/t) today.
Price indicators
- Two (2) deals were reported in this publishing window and considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty-three (23) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and sixteen (16) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given a 50% weightage.
Outlook
According to BigMint’s analysis, the Indian iron ore export market is expected to remain in a wait-and-watch mode, with participants assessing how global trends will influence the physical market. Trade volumes may surge in the near term if the seaborne market remains supportive.
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