Amidst a sharp rise in global thermal coal prices in CY’21, total exports by the major countries fell marginally by 2% y-o-y to 809 million tonnes (mn t), CoalMint data reveals.
The highest decline in coal shipments was recorded from South Africa by 13% y-o-y to 64 mn t.
A series of disruptions surrounding maintenance works at Transnet Freight Rail, force majeure at RBCT Port, and civil unrest lowered exports from South Africa in CY’21.
Strong demand from China following its unofficial ban on Australian coal imports also lifted South African coal prices by 88% y-o-y with RB1 (6000 NAR) grade prices averaging $124/t, FOB basis.
Strong procurement demand for thermal coal had propelled global trade for most part of the year as the global economy gradually recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, China, the world’s largest importer, faced a huge supply crunch during the middle of the year, followed by the gas crisis in Europe which further supported demand for coal.
Besides rising prices, coal supply was a major concern in CY’21 as resurgence in Covid cases in intervals and adverse weather conditions affected coal output in Indonesia, South Africa, and Australia.
Indonesian coal shipments dip by 2%
Indonesian coal export shipments totalled 315.5 mn t in CY’21, down slightly by 1.7% y-o-y as heavy rainfall disrupted mining activity and prices more than doubled.
Indonesian 4200 GAR prices averaged 63/t, up 108% y-o-y over last year, while that of 5800 GAR were at 104/t, FOB, up 93% y-o-y.
A sharp fall was, however, limited on robust demand for Indonesian coal in China, India, Japan, and Vietnam.
Limited supply and a sharp rise in coal prices had compelled several miners in the country to postpone their domestic market obligation (DMO) and miss their annual output target.
Shipments from Australia, Russia largely stable
Despite a sharp rise in Australian coal demand in several Asian and European countries in CY’21, thermal coal shipments from the country fell marginally by 1% to 197 mn t as its largest buyer, China, imposed a ban in late-CY’20, pulling down most of the trade ties with Australia.
In a bid to fill the trade gap, Chinese traders rushed into other sources, also contributing to the rally in global thermal coal prices.
Russian coal shipments were flat at 148 mn t in CY’21 amidst weather and transport-related disruptions. Majority of Russian coal exports were directed towards China last year.
Shipments from USA rise 47%
Persistent supply disruption in Indonesia, and South Africa had prompted several buyers to switch to high-grade US coal. Shipments from the US rose sharply by 47%, y-o-y to 30 mn t in CY’21 with India being the largest buyer at 10 mn t, followed by the Netherlands (3.3 mn t), and Japan (2.4 mn t), customs data showed.
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