- China, DRC see combined rise of 5% y-o-y
- India drives 3.2% production growth in Asia
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has released preliminary data for January-May 2025, indicating that global refined copper production rose by approximately 3.1% y-o-y. This included a 3.2% increase in primary production (from ores via electrolytic and electrowinning processes) and a 2.8% rise in secondary production (from scrap).
Regional trends in refined copper production
The growth in refined copper production was largely driven by China and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which together contributed about 56% of global refined copper output and saw a combined increase of 5%.
Chile’s refined copper output fell by 8.8%, with volumes from the electrolytic route down 12.8% due to smelter maintenance and production through solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) declining 6.5%. Asia (excluding China) saw a 3.2% increase, driven by higher production in India. Japan’s output dropped by 8.7% following a smelter maintenance shutdown.
In Indonesia, the Amman refinery began cathode production in late March, while start-up of the Manyar facility was delayed to H2CY’25.
Meanwhile, global secondary refined copper production increased by 2.8%, primarily supported by higher output in China.
Copper mine output up
Global copper mine production rose by 2.7% y-o-y in the first five months of 2025, with concentrate output up 2.9% and SX-EW up 2.1%, supported by new projects ramping up and improved performance at several operating mines.
Peru’s output increased by 3%, led by higher production at Las Bambas and Toromocho, which more than offset declines at Cerro Verde, Antamina, and Antapaccay. DRC saw a 9% rise, driven by the expansion of the Kamoa mine (concentrates) and the TFM/KFM operations (SX-EW). Mongolia’s output surged 26% due to the ramp-up at the Oyu Tolgoi underground project.
Chile’s mine production rose by 4.5% y-o-y, with increased output from Escondida, Centinela, Mantos Copper, and Codelco outweighing losses at Collahuasi, Los Pelambres, and other mines.
Indonesia’s mine production dropped sharply by 39%, mainly due to planned maintenance at Grasberg and lower output at Batu Hijau due to mine sequencing.
Refined copper usage grows
Global apparent refined copper usage rose by 3.2% y-o-y in January-May 2025.
China’s demand grew 5.5%, though net refined copper imports fell by 10%, as imports declined by 4% and exports rose by 59%. China’s share of total world refined copper usage stands at around 58%.
Global consumption, excluding China, was flat, as gains in Asia and MENA were offset by weak demand in the EU, Japan, and the US.
Market surplus rises
The global refined copper market recorded a surplus of 272,000 t in January-May 2025, rising to 305,000 t after adjusting for Chinese bonded stock changes, based on estimates from market consultants. Combined copper stocks at LME, COMEX, and SHFE stood at 419,917 t at the end of May, down 2.4% from December.
Copper prices
The average LME cash price for June was $9,834/t, up 3.2% from May. The highest price so far in 2025 was $10,120/t on 3 July, while the lowest was $8,539/t on 9 April. The year-to-date average stands at $9,466/t, which is 3.5% higher than the 2024 annual average.
China’s bonded stocks are estimated to have increased by around 33,000 t in January-May 2025 compared to end-2024 levels. Combined copper stocks at LME, COMEX, and SHFE stood at 365,249 t at the end of June, down 15% (or 64,979 t) from December. Stocks declined at the LME by 180,100 t but rose at COMEX by 107,743 t and at SHFE by 7,378 t.
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