- Lead mine supply to decline 3% in 2026 before recovering next year
- Improving concentrate availability to boost zinc supply in 2027
The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) expects the global refined lead surplus to widen in 2027, while the zinc market is projected to shift from a deficit in 2026 to a small surplus in 2027. The contrasting outlook reflects differences in refined metal production, mine supply and consumption growth across major producing and consuming regions.
According to ILZSG forecasts released on 19 October 2026, global refined lead supply is expected to exceed demand by 90,000 t in 2026 and 163,000 t in 2027. In zinc, the group forecasts a deficit of 88,000 t in 2026, followed by a surplus of 25,000 t in 2027.
Lead surplus to widen in 2027
Global refined lead demand is forecast to increase by 0.9% to 13.79 mnt in 2026 and by a further 1% to 13.92 mnt in 2027. Refined lead supply is expected to rise by 1% to 13.88 mnt in 2026 and by 1.5% to 14.08 mnt in 2027.
The widening surplus indicates that projected growth in refined lead production will outpace consumption growth in 2027. However, the supply outlook remains influenced by changes in mine output and refined production across key regions.
Global lead mine supply is forecast to decline by 2.8% to 4.44 mnt in 2026 before recovering by 2.9% to 4.58 mnt in 2027.
In China, lead demand is expected to increase by only 0.2% in 2026, reflecting weaker exports of lead-acid batteries and lower vehicle production, despite stable demand for replacement batteries.
In 2027, lead demand is forecast to rise in Europe, India and the US while declining in China and South Korea.
On the supply side, refined lead production growth in 2026 is expected to come from India, South Korea, Turkiye and Brazil, partly offsetting a decline in China. In 2027, output is projected to continue rising in India and South Korea, alongside a recovery in China, while Europe is expected to record a marginal decline.
The combination of higher refined output and moderate demand growth underpins ILZSG’s forecast of a larger lead surplus in 2027.
Zinc market to move into surplus
Global refined zinc demand is forecast to increase by 1.4% to 14.02 mnt in 2026 and by 1.2% to 14.19 mnt in 2027. Refined zinc supply is expected to rise by 0.9% to 13.93 mnt in 2026 and by 2% to 14.21 mnt in 2027.
The resulting balance is expected to shift from an 88,000 t deficit in 2026 to a 25,000 t surplus in 2027. The forecast points to stronger supply growth in 2027, as improving concentrate availability supports refined production.
Zinc mine supply is projected to decline by 2.6% to 12.40 mnt in 2026 before increasing by 3% to 12.78 mnt in 2027.
Regional production trends remain uneven. Chinese refined zinc production is forecast to grow by 3.7% in 2026, supported by new capacity. Outside China, output is expected to decline by 2% because of limited concentrate availability and rising energy costs.
In 2027, refined zinc supply is expected to increase as concentrate availability improves. Projected production gains include Canada, Japan, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, where the Odda expansion is expected to contribute, and Russia, following the development of the new Verkhny Ufaley smelter.
Demand growth remains uneven across regions
China’s zinc demand is forecast to increase by 1.8% in 2026, while European demand is expected to grow by 0.3%. In 2027, Chinese demand growth is projected to slow to 0.3%, while consumption is expected to increase in Europe, India and the US.
China’s depressed real estate investment remains a constraint on zinc demand. Infrastructure investment and vehicle production also declined in the first half of 2026, although manufactured exports continued to support industrial activity.
The demand outlook therefore remains uneven, with regional growth expected to support consumption even as weakness in China’s property sector continues to weigh on the market.
Forecast revisions highlight changing market balances
Compared with its April forecasts, ILZSG raised its 2026 refined lead supply forecast by 50,000 t and its consumption forecast by 70,000 t.
For zinc, the group lowered its 2026 supply forecast by 60,000 t. The text also reports a 20,000 t revision to consumption, but does not clearly specify the direction of that revision.
These revisions highlight the differing supply-demand dynamics of the two metals. Lead is projected to remain in surplus in both 2026 and 2027, with the surplus widening in the second year. Zinc, by contrast, is expected to move from a deficit to a small surplus as refined supply growth accelerates.
The key factor to monitor in 2027 will be whether the anticipated recovery in mine supply and refined production materialises, particularly for zinc, while regional demand trends will continue to shape consumption growth in both markets.
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