- Weak steel demand, squeezed mill margins weigh on market sentiment
- Dalian futures decline amid subdued demand, persistent market uncertainty
Iron ore fines (Fe 61%) spot prices remained unchanged d-o-d for the third consecutive session at $91/dmt CFR North China on 21 October 2026, indicating a pause in price movement. The stability suggests a wait-and-watch approach among market participants, with buyers and sellers assessing procurement requirements and demand signals before making fresh commitments. However, without supporting data on steel mill buying, port inventories and futures movements, the underlying market sentiment remains uncertain.
Market participants are likely to monitor Chinese steelmakers’ procurement activity and restocking requirements for clearer demand signals. The extent of fresh buying will be important in determining whether current price levels can be sustained or face pressure from weaker purchasing interest.
On the supply side, seaborne availability and iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports remain important factors to watch. Ample port inventories, if confirmed by current data, could reduce the urgency for mills to purchase additional cargoes, while tighter availability could provide support to spot prices.
Steel production trends and mill profitability will also influence procurement decisions. Weak steelmaking margins could encourage mills to limit raw material purchases and prioritise inventory management, whereas improved margins and stronger steel demand could support fresh buying.
DCE iron ore futures ease on cautious market sentiment
The January 2027 iron ore futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) declined by RMB 5/t ($0.75/t) d-o-d to RMB 676/t ($101/t) on 21 October 2026, reflecting mild selling pressure. The decline indicates cautious market sentiment, with prices likely to remain sensitive to Chinese steelmakers’ procurement activity, steel demand and iron ore inventory levels.
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