Ferrous scrap export markets mixed as US prices rise, Europe softens

• European scrap prices soften on slower Turkish demand
• US scrap prices poised to rise in Oct amid tighter supply, firm demand

Ferrous scrap export markets remained mixed during the week ended 1 October, with US prices poised for October gains amid tighter supply and firm export demand, while European scrap softened slightly on slower Turkish buying. Brazil’s market remained subdued as weak domestic demand and cautious steelmaker procurement limited price movement, although exporters continued to hold offers firm.

US

US shredded scrap increased by $1/t w-o-w to $386/t FOB East Coast, while HMS 80:20 export prices rose $1/t w-o-w to $366/t FOB, equivalent to around $404/t CFR Turkiye, up from $380/t CFR Turkiye in early September. Turkish mills continued restocking US scrap this week amid disruptions to alternative billet supplies.

Domestic prices were unchanged, with busheling at $463-465/t Midwest and $448-450/t Southeast, while shredded scrap remained at $408-410/t in both regions. HMS was assessed at $354-356/t Midwest and $358-360/t Southeast.

Moreover, US ferrous scrap prices are expected to rise during the October buy week as stronger export demand tightens domestic availability. Midwest dealers were targeting $20/t increases for obsolete scrap, while Southeast dealers expected gains of more than $20/t due to stronger export exposure.

A Mid-Atlantic dealer said the wide prime-to-HMS spread could support further gains, while one market participant expected prices to rise $45-50/t between October and December.

Meanwhile, US mill maintenance could reduce scrap consumption in October, although tighter finished-steel supply may provide additional price support.

Europe

Europe’s scrap market softened slightly, with BigMint’s Rotterdam HMS 80:20 assessment declining $1/t w-o-w to $356/t FOB. In Germany, HRC prices were assessed at Euro 750-780/t ($849-881/t) DAP, while in Italy, they were around Euro 750-755/t ($848-853/t). Dockside HMS 80:20 prices were assessed at Euro 285-295/t ($322-333/t), broadly stable w-o-w.

CRC and HDG prices remained broadly stable amid weak demand and elevated inventories. Benelux HMS was indicated at Euro 285/t ($322/t) DAP, while Turkish buying activity slowed.

Brazil

Brazil’s ferrous scrap market remained subdued during the week, with sluggish trading activity keeping domestic prices unchanged. Market participants expect downward pressure to return in October as steelmakers typically reduce scrap purchases during the final quarter.

One recycler said purchasing activity could weaken further during October-December. However, market participants noted that recent price declines lacked sufficient repeatability, with two sources indicating reductions of BRL 70-100/t ($14-19/t) between August and September.

Brazil-origin HMS 80:20 was assessed at BRL 840-850/t ($162-164/t) FOT, clean steel scrap at BRL 940-950/t ($181-183/t) FOT, and turnings scrap at BRL 730-750/t ($141-145/t) FOT.

Export prices also remained stable. Brazil-origin HMS 80:20 was assessed at $302-305/t FOB, while shredded scrap was assessed at $325-330/t FOB, both unchanged.

Despite recent declines in Indian scrap prices, Brazilian traders continued to hold export offers firm, limiting downward movement in overseas prices.