- ARA stocks decline by 30% y-o-y
- Low inventories provide price floor
Coal inventories at Europe’s Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp (ARA) terminals fell to 2.7 million tonnes (mnt) as of 27 April, according to latest data. While this represented a 2.2% increase w-o-w, stocks were down 29.8% y-o-y.
Stocks at HES terminals — a key indicator for the ARA region — stood at 2.5 mnt, down 1.6% w-o-w and 25.7% y-o-y. Current HES inventory levels are 1.7 mnt (41%) below the average April inventory since 2021, which stands at 4.2 mnt. This highlights persistently tight supply conditions across the region.
Supply-demand balance tightening
The sharp y-o-y decline in ARA stocks suggests that despite muted immediate demand, the supply-demand balance is tighter than recent price action might indicate. Any pick-up in European coal burn — whether from gas-to-coal switching, colder weather, or reduced renewable output — could quickly translate into price support.
European gas storage is recovering seasonally but remains below last year’s levels, currently at 32.2% of capacity compared with 39.2% at the same time in 2025.
Limited immediate demand, but floor in place
Current coal burn in Europe remains limited due to high renewable output and mild temperatures. However, the low inventory levels mean that any demand shock — such as a prolonged period of low wind generation or a cold snap — would have an outsized impact on prices.
The forward curve suggests that the market is pricing in tighter supply later in the year, with a contango structure between front-month and forward contracts.
Outlook
ARA inventories are at levels that provide a strong price floor. While immediate demand is weak, the drawdown in stocks leaves the market vulnerable to any supply or demand shocks.
Traders should monitor ARA inventory levels closely, as well as renewable generation trends and EU gas storage data. Any sustained drop in wind output or acceleration in coal burn could trigger a price rally.
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