- JSW Steel, Tata Steel India likely to face 9.5% duty
- Japan could face highest duty of 28%; Taiwan may attract 20.7% duty
The European Commission has proposed definitive anti-dumping (AD) duties ranging from 5.6% to 28% on imports of certain cold-rolled (CR) flat steel products from India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkiye and Vietnam, concluding that dumped imports from these countries have caused material injury to the EU steel industry. Once formally adopted, the measures are expected to strengthen the EU’s trade defence framework and influence future CR steel trade flows into the region.
The proposal represents the final stage of the investigation initiated on 18 September 2025, following a complaint filed by the European Steel Association (EUROFER) in August 2025. The Commission examined alleged dumping during 1 July 2024-30 June 2025, while the injury assessment covered the period from January 2022 to June 2025.
Company-specific duties
The Commission has proposed company-specific duties under the EU’s lesser duty rule, under which the definitive anti-dumping duty is limited to the lower of the calculated dumping margin and the injury elimination margin.
For India, JSW Steel, JSW Steel Coated Products, Tata Steel India and other cooperating exporters are likely to face a uniform duty of 9.5%, placing Indian suppliers among the least affected exporters under the investigation.
Among other exporting countries, Japanese producers, including Nippon Steel and Daido Steel, could face the highest definitive duty of 28%. Taiwan’s China Steel Corporation and Chung Hung Steel may attract duties of 20.7%, while non-cooperating exporters are proposed to face a 27% duty.
Vietnamese exporters, including POSCO Vietnam, China Steel & Nippon Steel Vietnam and Hoa Sen Group, are proposed to face a 16% duty. In Turkiye, Tatmetal could face the lowest company-specific duty at 5.6%, followed by 7.3% for Erdemir Group and other cooperating exporters, while Borçelik and all remaining exporters may attract a 9.7% duty.
Dumped imports cause material injury to EU industry
The Commission concluded that low-priced imports from the five countries materially injured the EU cold-rolled steel industry by putting pressure on domestic prices, reducing producers’ market position and weakening profitability.
During the investigation period, EU producers’ market share declined to 66% from 70% in 2022, while sales volumes also contracted amid rising import competition. Although production costs declined due to lower raw material prices, selling prices fell at a faster pace, limiting mills’ ability to recover costs and reducing profitability to 0-5%, compared with 10-15% in 2022.
The Commission attributed this deterioration primarily to the increase in dumped imports, which entered the EU market at prices that constrained domestic producers’ pricing power and contributed to weaker financial performance.
The Commission determined that imports from the five countries increased by 28% compared with 2022, reaching approximately 1.69 mnt during the investigation period. Their combined share of the EU free market rose to 23% from 16% in 2022, although it moderated slightly from 24% in 2024. Over the same period, average import prices declined by 34% to EUR 695/t, with country-specific reductions ranging from 30% to 43%.
The Commission calculated price undercutting margins of 11% for India, 12.6% for Japan, 9.2% for Taiwan, 5.1-13.4% for Turkiye and 10.7% for Vietnam. Based on the dumping and injury assessment, the Commission proposed definitive anti-dumping duties ranging from 5.6% to 28%.
No retroactive duty collection
Although imports were placed under customs registration from December 2025, the Commission has decided against retroactive duty collection as no provisional anti-dumping measures were imposed during the investigation.
Therefore, the definitive duties are expected to apply only from the date the final regulation enters into force, with previously registered imports remaining unaffected.
Outlook
Although the timeline for formal adoption and implementation of the definitive anti-dumping duties has not been disclosed, the proposed measures are expected to restrict CRC imports into the EU and influence future sourcing patterns.
The impact is likely to vary across suppliers, with Indian exporters expected to face a relatively lower duty of 9.5% compared with higher proposed duties for Japanese and Taiwanese suppliers. Japan could face the highest duty of 28%, while Taiwan exporters may attract duties of up to 20.7%, potentially weighing more heavily on their competitiveness in the EU market.
Alongside existing trade barriers such as CBAM and tighter safeguard quota provisions, the proposed duties could further limit exporters’ access to the EU market, prompting suppliers to explore alternative destinations and EU buyers to reassess procurement strategies.
Market participants are awaiting further clarity on how the proposed anti-dumping duties will interact with the existing safeguard quota system. According to an EU-based market source, the previous safeguard provision limiting the application of multiple trade defence measures has been removed under the revised framework. This could mean exporters may face both anti-dumping duties and safeguard-related costs, with volumes exceeding tariff-rate quotas attracting out-of-quota duty, further increasing the overall cost of supplying the EU market.
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