- LME aluminium prices decline in Jul’26 after 25% rally between Jan and Jun
- EGA restart adds 0.3 mnt of aluminium supply, shrinking CY’26 supply deficit
Base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) traded mostly higher on 14 July 2026, supported by continued inventory drawdowns and improved investor sentiment. Copper advanced 0.75% d-o-d to $13,643/t, followed by zinc, which gained 0.93% to $3,599/t, while aluminium edged up 0.22% to $3,177/t. Nickel remained largely unchanged, easing 0.01% to $16,765/t, while lead slipped 0.16% to $1,866/t.
LME inventories continued to trend lower as copper stocks declined 0.42% d-o-d to 305,200 t, extending the recent drawdown and highlighting tightening physical availability. Aluminium inventories fell 0.52% to 286,225 t, while zinc stocks declined 0.46% to 114,275 t. Lead and nickel inventories remained stable.
Domestic market overview
India’s non-ferrous scrap market remained steady on 14 July. Aluminium tense scrap (loose), ex-Delhi, remained unchanged at INR 268,000/t, while ex-Chennai prices also remained unchanged at INR 255,000/t.
Meanwhile, copper armature scrap (Cu 99%), ex-Delhi, increased by INR 7,000/t, or 0.58% d-o-d, to INR 1,217,000/t, tracking gains in global copper prices.
Oil remains elevated on escalating US-Iran tensions
Global crude oil prices remained firm on 15 July 2026, with Brent crude rising 0.60% d-o-d to $85.42/bbl, while WTI crude held steady at $79.79/bbl. Natural gas increased 1.53% to $2.92/MMBtu.
Oil prices stayed near multi-month highs after renewed US-Iran hostilities targeted energy infrastructure. Fresh US strikes on Iranian military and energy targets, coupled with Tehran’s threats to disrupt shipping, sustained the geopolitical risk premium in crude markets.
Brent traded above $85/bbl while WTI remained close to $80/bbl, as analysts warned that any disruption to exports or tanker traffic could push prices towards $100/bbl. Meanwhile, US gasoline prices have already risen to around $3.86 per gallon, with analysts estimating that every $10/bbl increase in crude could add roughly 25 cents per gallon at the pump.
Other updates
Improving supply outlook prompts lower aluminium price forecasts
Improving aluminium supply prospects in the Middle East and higher Chinese production have prompted ING Research and other agencies to lower their aluminium price forecasts. The global aluminium market deficit is now projected at around 1.2 mnt in 2026, compared with an earlier estimate of 1.8 mnt, supported by an additional 0.3 mnt of production expected in the second half of 2026 as Middle Eastern smelters, including Emirates Global Aluminum’s Al Taweelah complex, restore operations.
Meanwhile, China’s aluminium exports rose 16% y-o-y to 630,000 t in May, while primary aluminium output reached a record 3.89 mnt, easing supply concerns. Despite the improved supply outlook, the market is expected to remain in deficit through 2026, with balanced fundamentals likely to support prices over the longer term.
Aluminium correction seen as buying opportunity for producers
The recent correction in aluminium prices may emerge as a potential accumulation opportunity for leading Indian producers, including Vedanta Aluminium, Hindalco and NALCO. LME aluminium prices had surged nearly 25% between January and June 2026, reaching an intraday high of around $3,752/t, before correcting in July as supply concerns eased. Despite the pullback, long-term fundamentals remain supportive, driven by rising demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, power transmission and infrastructure.
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