China’s crude steel production may decline around 2% y-o-y to 940 mnt in 2026

China produced 499.9 million tonnes (mnt) of crude steel during the first half of 2026, down 3% y-o-y from 515 mnt in the corresponding period last year, according to BigMint data. Output is projected at around 440 mnt during H2, taking full-year production to approximately 940 mnt compared with 961 mnt in 2025. The moderation extends the gradual adjustment in China’s steel industry since output exceeded 1.03 billion tonnes (bnt) in 2021.


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