- HRC prices edge up slightly, rebar remains stable
- Iron ore prices register slight w-o-w gains
China’s steel market saw a slight uptick this week supported by a modest rise in futures. Domestic HRC prices posted a marginal increase, while rebar prices remained stable w-o-w. This was mirrored in the raw materials prices, where iron ore and billet posted small gains even as coking coal eased slightly.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has reported that the total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises reached 14.28 million tonnes (mnt) in late-November, marking a sharp decline of 1.33 mnt or 8.5% from 15.61 mnt in mid-November.
1. Iron ore spot prices rise w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices inched up by $2/dmt to $108/dmt CFR China on 5 Dec w-o-w. The prices firmed on ample liquidity and upbeat sentiment ahead of the Politburo meeting. Trade activity remains active, with brands finding support on improved margins. Blend fines lead medium-grade liquidity with minimal post-procurement concerns, though blast furnace maintenance may weigh on portside prices.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports were recorded at 142.4 mnt on 4 December, surging by 3.36 mnt w-o-w, as per data published by SteelHome.
2. China’s met coke prices weaken even as PHCC firms up: China’s met coke market remained under pressure amid rising raw coal supply and cautious buying. Trading stayed dull, with bids slipping further. Despite better coking coal margins, coke offtake weakened as steel mills faced poor profits, weak demand, and maintenance shutdowns. Higher inventories and lower molten iron output reinforced pessimism.
While, Australian PHCC prices rose $6/t to $205/t FOB, also BigMint’s PHCC index rose $5/t at $224/t CNF Paradip on 5 Dec 2025, underpinned by stable seaborne market fundamentals.
3. Chinese billet prices inch up: Steel billet prices in China edged up by RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,000/t ($424/t) for the week ended 5 Dec 2025. The uptick was supported by an eight-month low in steel output and falling mill inventories, though gains were capped by soft raw material prices, high port stocks and muted restocking interest.
a) Spot pellet premium edges up w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet gained uptick of $0.15/t to $17.8/t CFR China on 3 December.
b) Spot lump premium dips w-o-w: Spot lump premium dropped by $0.01/dmtu w-o-w to $0.075/dmtu on 5 December.
4. Domestic HRC prices inch up w-o-w: Domestic HRC prices in China inched up marginally w-o-w, with offers rising by RMB 20/t ($3/t) to RMB 3,110/t ($440/t) on 5 December from RMB 3,090/t ($437/t) on 28 November driven by mild gains in SHFE futures, which rose by RMB 24/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,317/t ($469/t) on 5 December from RMB 3,293/t ($466/t) on 28 November. Despite this slight uptick, demand in the region remained slow, with market participants expecting stimulus-driven support.
Meanwhile, China’s HRC export offers posted a small uptick of $5/t w-o-w, reaching around $475/t FOB on 5 December compared with $470/t FOB in the previous week.
5. Rebar prices remain stable w-o-w: China’s rebar prices held unchanged w-o-w at around RMB 3,160/t ($447/t). Meanwhile, SHFE rebar futures (January 2026 contract) inched up by RMB 46/t ($7/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,144/t ($445/t) on 5 December, compared with RMB 3,098/t ($438/t) on 28 November.
However, overall sentiment, remained subdued amid lower output and seasonally slowing demand.
China’s Shagang Steel has kept its long steel prices stable for early-Dec’25 sales. Notably, prices have not been revised since 11 Sep’25. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods were as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($488/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560/t ($503/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($491/t)
Outlook
In the near term, China’s steel market is likely to remain range-bound, with any upward movement dependent on whether demand shows a meaningful pickup after the seasonal slowdown. While firmer futures provide some support, sentiment is expected to stay cautious until clearer signs of recovery emerge.
Leave a Reply