- HRC prices weaken while rebar prices show modest gains
- Rising inventories and seasonal slowdown weigh on near-term outlook
China’s steel prices remained mixed in the week ended 15 May 2026, with domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices declining w-o-w, while rebar prices rose marginally. Raw materials, including iron ore and billet prices declined, while coking coal prices edged up w-o-w.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that total steel inventories at key Chinese enterprises reached 16.88 million tonnes (mnt) in early-May 2026 (1-10 May), up by 1.45 mnt or 9.4% against 15.43 mnt in late-April 2026 (21-30 Apr).
1. Iron ore spot prices drop lower w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices for Fe 61% declined by $2/dmt w-o-w to $110/dmt CFR China on 15 May’26. Iron ore prices cooled off after the recent surge amid subdued trading liquidity in the primary market, while secondary market activity also remained limited as participants monitored developments around the Beijing trade talks. Despite cautious procurement by buyers, overall trading activity remained healthy through the week, supported by declining inventories and sustained high production levels at Chinese mills. Meanwhile, sellers continued to offload inventories at lower prices, exerting additional pressure on the market.
a) Spot pellet premium edge up w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet increased by $0.75/t w-o-w to $18.15/t CFR China on 13 May.
b) Spot lump premium rose marginally w-o-w: Spot lump premium edged up w-o-w to $0.1800/dmtu on 15 May.
2. Met coke and coking coal prices remain steady w-o-w on balanced market fundamentals: China’s metallurgical coke market remained stable w-o-w, supported by balanced supply-demand fundamentals and firm steel production. Met coke prices also remained stable. Stable mine operations, firm steel output, and low coke inventories supported market sentiment, while port prices and freight rates remained unchanged. The market is expected to stay stable in the near term.
Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices remained stable w-o-w at $240/t FOB as of 8 May 2026, supported by balanced seaborne market fundamentals and cautious procurement activity from key Asian buyers. BigMint’s premium hard coking coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $266/tonne (t) CNF Paradip, India, on 15 May 2026. Index has remained stable w-o-w amid limited offers and berthing, mining delays from one of an Australian miner. Index is trading close to three-month high as similar levels were seen in early Feb’26, as per data maintained with BigMint.
3. Chinese billet prices inch w-o-w after early gain; rebar futures soften: Chinese billet prices remained largely stable w-o-w at RMB 3,090/t ($454/t) on 15 May, compared to RMB 3,100/t ($456/t) on 8 May. Prices rose early in the week supported by firmer iron ore and coke prices, positive post-holiday demand sentiment, and stronger export offers. However, gains were later offset by weaker steel futures, softer commodity sentiment, and expectations of higher steel output as mill margins improved.
Billet export offers from China were heard largely firm at around $485-488/t FOB during the week. Stable HRC base offers, balanced inventories, and improved coated steel trade activity supported export sentiment, although buyers remained cautious.
4. Domestic HRC prices fall w-o-w: Domestic HRC prices in China fell by RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,290/t ($483/t) on 15 May, down from RMB 3,310/t ($486/t) on 8 May 2026. The downtrend in prices was largely attributed to weak demand recovery, fading post-holiday restocking momentum and cautious downstream buying, broadly tracking weaker futures sentiment, with SHFE HRC futures (Oct 2026 contract), declining by RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,465/t ($509/t) on 15 May, compared with RMB 3,485/t ($512/t) a week earlier.
5. Rebar prices rise w-o-w: China’s rebar prices rose by RMB 80/t ($12/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,510/t ($515/t) on 15 May from RMB 3,430/t ($/504/t) a week earlier, driven by strong post-holiday restocking demand and firm raw material costs, even as overall consumption remained uneven amid rising caution ahead of the seasonal monsoon slowdown. In contrast, SHFE futures Oct 2026 rebar contract declined by RMB 26/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,249/t ($477/t) on 15 May from RMB 3,275/t ($481/t) on 8 May 2026, reflecting weaker demand expectations and cautious market sentiment.
China’s Shagang Steel has raised its long steel prices by RMB 50/t ($7/t) for mid-May’26 sales. Post revision prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,400/t ($501/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,530/t ($520/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,440/t ($506/t)
Outlook
China steel prices are expected to remain under mild pressure in the coming week amid weak demand conditions, while the approaching seasonal slowdown associated with the onset of the rainy season is likely to dampen near-term market activity. Fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly iron ore and coking coal, will remain the key driver of price movements, with overall direction likely to depend on the combined impact of input cost trends and the pace of recovery in downstream demand.
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