- HRC, rebar prices inch up slightly
- Raw materials firm despite soft demand
China’s steel market saw a slight uptick this week, with futures showing a modest rise and domestic prices of hot-rolled coils (HRCs) and rebars registering an increase. Additionally, raw material prices corrected mildly w-o-w, with iron ore and billet rising and coking coal staying firm w-o-w.
1.Iron ore spot prices edge up: Iron ore fines benchmark prices inched up by $1/dmt to $106/dmt CFR China on 28 Nov w-o-w. The slight uptick was due to increased trading activity for Jan’26 cargoes, which boosted market liquidity and supported mainstream grades. Buyers moved in to secure material ahead of upcoming shipments, creating short-term demand strength despite weak steel mill margins and cost pressures from higher coke prices.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports were recorded at 139.04 mnt on 27 November, falling by 0.58 mnt w-o-w, as per data published by SteelHome.
a) Spot pellet premium rises: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet gained uptick of $0.6/t to $17.65/t CFR China on 26 November.
b) Spot lump premium dips w-o-w: Spot lump premium dropped by $0.01/dmtu w-o-w to $0.0870/dmtu on 28 Nov.
2. Coking coal prices stay firm: China’s met coke spot market held steady as stable feedstock costs, consistent on-site procurement, and targeted production cuts balanced supply-demand dynamics, though subdued steel margins and uneven coke quality restrained aggressive buying.
Concurrently, Australian PHCC prices held stable at $199/t FOB, while BigMint’s PHCC index remained at $219/t CNF Paradip on 29 Nov 2025, underpinned by stable seaborne market fundamentals.
3. Chinese billet prices inch up: Steel billet prices in China inched up by RMB 30/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 2,980/t ($421/t) for the week ended 28 Nov 2025. The rise was supported by tight supply, steady production costs, and stable iron ore at $104-107/t.
Better coated billet demand and a four-month-low in social steel inventories added mild strength, though momentum remained limited.
Similarly, SHFE rebar futures rose by RMB 53/t ($8/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,110/t ($440/t). Export sales slowed, especially for HRC and coated products, keeping overall sentiment cautious as the market moved into a seasonally weak December and awaited policy signals.
4. Domestic HRC prices inch up marginally w-o-w: China’s domestic HRC offers edged up w-o-w by RMB 20/t ($3/t) to RMB 3,090/t ($437/t) against RMB 3,070/t ($434/t), driven by small gain in SHFE futures and demand stayed sluggish. Moreover, SHFE HRC futures (January 2026 contract) edged up slightly by RMB 20/t (3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,293/t ($465/t) on 28 November against RMB 3273/t ($463/t) 21 November.
China’s HRC export offers saw a slight uptick of RMB 10/t w-o-w, rising to around $470/t FOB, compared with $460/t FOB in the previous week.
5. Domestic rebar prices see modest gains: China’s rebar prices modestly inched up by RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,160/t ($443/t) from RMB 3,140/t ($446/t). However, SHFE rebar futures (January 2026 contract) increased by RMB 38/t ($5/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,098/t ($438/t) on 28 November 2025 from 3,060/t ($432/t) on 21 November 2025. However, weak demand and bearish market sentiment prevails in market.
Outlook
China’s steel market may see a slight uptick in the near term supported by mild gains in futures and raw materials, though overall prices are likely to remain largely range-bound amid weak demand and cautious year-end sentiment.
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