- Steel prices range-bound amid weak demand signals
- Domestic Chinese market expected to remain volatile
Chinese steel prices fluctuated in the week ended 27 March. Domestic HRC and rebar prices remain range bound w-o-w, additionally key raw material prices such as iron ore, coking coal, billet prices were stable over the same period.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that total steel inventory at key China mills stood at 17.91 million tonnes (mnt) in mid-March 2026 (1-10 March), rising by 100,000 tonnes (t) or 0.6% compared with 17.81 mnt in early-March 2026.
Additionally, inventories decreased by 2.1 t or 1.2% m-o-m from 18.12 mnt in mid-February, while on a yearly basis, the same increased by 1 mnt or 5.9% compared with 16.91 mnt in mid-March 2025.
1.Iron ore spot prices edge down w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices for Fe 61% dropped by $2/t w-o-w to $108/dmt CFR China on 27 Mar’26. The decline was mainly driven by a broader correction in ferrous futures following a sharp, energy-led rally amid rising geopolitical tensions, with market participants viewing the earlier gains as overextended. And limiting margins kept focus to shift towards low and mid grade fines for cost optimization.
a) Spot pellet premium firms up w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet rose by $0.5/t to $17.55/t CFR China on 25 Mar.
b) Spot lump premium softens w-o-w: Spot lump premium edged down by $0.005/t w-o-w to $0.1850/dmtu on 27 Mar.
2. China coking coal market stable; Seaborne prices edge higher: China’s coking coal market remained broadly stable, with spot prices recording marginal gains amid active participation in auctions. Meanwhile, leading Chinese coke producers proposed the first round of coke price increases of RMB 50-55/t ($7-8/t). However, steel mills have yet to accept the proposed hike, indicating that negotiations between coke producers and steelmakers are still ongoing.
In the seaborne market, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices increased by $11/t to $235/t FOB as of 27 March 2026, supported by firm buying interest and tighter near-term availability. Similarly, BigMint’s PHCC index at Paradip rose by $8/t w-o-w to $263/t CNF on 27 March 2026. The index has climbed to a more than one-month high, with similar levels last observed in mid-February.
3. Billet prices stable w-o-w: Chinese billet prices remained largely stable w-o-w at RMB 2,960/t ($428/t) on 27 March, compared with RMB 2,960/t ($428/t) on 20 March, as early gains from firm raw material costs were offset by late-week pressure from sluggish demand and softer inputs. Although steel output increased and inventories declined, weak trade activity continued to cap price upside.
Raw material trends were mixed. Iron ore prices initially strengthened to a three-month high before easing toward the end of the week, while coke prices also softened after providing earlier cost support, reflecting weaker consumption signals.
Export sentiment improved slightly, with mills holding firm offers, though overall trading remained cautious amid uncertain global demand.
4. Domestic HRC prices inched up w-o-w: The prices of HRC in China stood at around RMB 3,130 ($453/t) on 27 March increased by RMB 10 ($1/t) from RMB 3,120 ($452/t) a week earlier. However, SHFE HRC futures (May 2026 contract), also remained unaltered w-o-w at around RMB 3,297/t ($477/t) on 27 March. China’s HRC export offers increased by $10/t w-o-w to around $490/t from $480/t FOB a week earlier.
The price of the domestic hot coil market fluctuated in the week, whereas in the starting of week prices rose and in the mid-week prices rise and fall and adjusted to pattern again.
5. Rebar prices increase w-o-w: The Chinese rebar prices edged up slightly by RMB 10/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,210/t ($464/t) on 27 March from RMB 3,200/t ($463/t) a week earlier. However, the change did not reflect in SHFE futures, with the May 2026 rebar contract was seen range bound this week stood at around RMB 3,121/t ($452/t) marginally dropped by RMB 5/t ($0.7/t) from RMB 3,126/t ($452.3/t) a week ago.
China’s Shagang Steel has continued to keep its long steel prices unchanged for late-Mar’26 sales, with no price revisions announced since 11 Sep’25. Prices of rebars, coiled rebars, and wire rods are as follows:
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,450/t ($500/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,560 ($515/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,470/t ($502/t)
Outlook
Amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions between US-Israel and Iran, which has created uncertainty around maritime safety and logistics through the Strait of Hormuz, Chinese HRC exporters have been encountering serious disruptions in shipments. The Chinese market is expected to remain volatile in the near term.
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