China’s steel exports for March 2025 stood at 10.456 million tonnes (mnt), up by 5.7% y-o-y, as per General Administration of Customs. In January-March 2025, exports surged 6.3% y-o-y to 27.429 mnt against 25.78 mnt in the same period of previous year.
Factors driving China’s steel exports
Weak domestic market sentiments: China’s steel domestic demand remained weak, largely attributed to the struggling property sector, marked by construction slowdown, leading to cautious market sentiment. The sluggish demand from property sector has significantly impacted steel demand, given construction’s substantial steel consumption. As a result, Chinese steel mills prioritized exports amid weak domestic demand.
Competitive export offers: Chinese steel exports remained competitive due to attractive pricing as compared to other origins. In March, Chinese export offers were quoted at $467/t FOB. Notably, these prices were substantially lower than India’s export offers, which were $495/t FOB in March.
Outlook
China’s steel exports may continue to benefit amid weak domestic demand, driven by the sluggish demand from property sector. Moreover, with Chinese steel prices remaining competitive globally, exports could stay robust in the near term. However, any significant shift in domestic demand or changes in global trade policies could impact this trend.
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