- Heavy rains temporarily disrupt premium coking coal supply in Liulin
- Supply impact expected to be short-lived as mine operations resume
Relentless rainfall has caused power outages at seven coking coal mines in Liulin county, Lvliang city, North China’s Shanxi province, leaving a combined 10.35 million tonnes/year of production capacity idled, Mysteel learned on August 4.
A substation line in Liulin has failed lately after days of heavy rain, forcing the seven mines to halt operations. Mysteel learned that the power outage at the mines could continue to last up to four days.
One mine has restarted as of August 4, and the rest are expected to resume normal coal output around August 8 if repairs go to plan. Local authorities are working to fix the power line to restore electricity supply as soon as possible.
Liulin sits at the heart of China’s premium coking coal supply. County-level data released in January 2025 show that Liulin runs 27 coal mines with a combined raw coal capacity of 42.35 million tonnes/year and washed coal capacity of 100 million tonnes/year. The county is a nationally known production base for low-ash, low-sulfur primary coking coal.
The seven halted pits therefore account for roughly a quarter of Liulin’s raw coal capacity, making the ongoing suspensions a notable yet temporary hit to local coking coal supply.
The key coking coal hub is currently facing an unusually wet summer. Lvliang’s meteorological bureau kept issuing rainstorm warnings over August 1-4, with Liulin among the affected areas.
Local data showed that Liulin received 399.5 mm of rainfall in the past seven months, which is 67% above the long-term average. The precipitation in July alone stands 60% above normal. Weather forecasts indicated that Liulin could receive another 70-130 mm of rainfall over August 1-5, with some areas potentially seeing more than 200 mm, followed by scattered thunderstorms through August 13.
The impact on coal supply appears limited so far. Based on annual capacity of 10.35 million tonnes and a 330-day operating year, the seven mines normally produce around 31,000 tonnes/day combined. With six mines remaining offline for about four days, the indicative lost output would be around 100,000 tonnes. While small relative to China’s total coking coal production, the disruption could still tighten supplies of premium-grade material, according to Mysteel Global’s estimate.
If power supply is restored by August 8 as expected, the impact should remain short-lived. The key risk is whether further rainfall delays repairs and extends the outage, although the disruption is not yet large enough to alter the broader coking coal supply-demand balance.
On Monday, the Mysteel Coking Coal Index (MCCI), which tracks nationwide coking coal prices in China, stood at Yuan 1,689.8/tonne ($250.1/t), including 13% VAT, up by Yuan 3.3/t from a day ago. The price has been rangebound around Yuan 1,700/t since the start of July.
Note: This article has been published in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.
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