- Exports of billets and slabs surge past historic peak
- Southeast Asia absorbs bulk of Chinese semi-finished steel
- Low-value exports rise as mills prioritise utilisation
Japan Metal Daily: China’s exports of steel semi-finished products surged to a record 14.82 million tonnes in 2025, more than 2.3 times higher y-o-y, marking the highest calendar-year volume in 25 years, according to data from the China Iron and Steel Industry Association. The figure surpassed the previous peak of 9.08 million tonnes recorded in 2006, highlighting a structural shift in China’s export mix amid persistent domestic demand weakness.
The sharp rise comes despite China’s crude steel output falling below 1 billion tonnes for the first time in six years. While production cuts were implemented, the contraction in domestic steel consumption, particularly construction-grade demand–outpaced supply-side adjustments, pushing mills to channel excess output into overseas markets through semi-finished products.
Policy tailwinds and demand erosion reshape flows
China had earlier imposed export taxes of up to 25% on semi-finished steel, sharply curbing shipments until volumes dropped below 10,000 tonnes in 2011. However, the gradual rollback of export duties since 2016, now fully tax-free, has coincided with a prolonged slowdown in domestic steel consumption, accelerating billet and slab exports. Volumes rose from 1.03 million tonnes in 2022 to 6.44 million tonnes in 2024 before jumping to current highs.
Southeast Asia dominates the destination mix
Southeast Asia remained the primary destination in 2025. Indonesia emerged as the largest buyer, with shipments rising 98% y-o-y to 2.35 million tonnes, followed by the Philippines (1.62 million tonnes) and Thailand (1.1 million tonnes). Additional flows were recorded to Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, South Korea, and parts of Africa and Latin America. Exports were dominated by billets, with limited slab shipments. The average export price fell 8% y-o-y to $446/t, reflecting the low-value nature of the material.
Outlook
With China’s total steel exports already at a record 119.02 million tonnes, combined shipments including semi-finished products exceed 130 million tonnes. Unless domestic construction demand stabilises or policy constraints return, semi-finished exports are likely to remain elevated in the near term as mills prioritise capacity utilisation over margins.
Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and BigMint.
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