China: Raw coal output dips y-o-y during Jan-Feb’26

• Production falls to 2-year low during Chinese New Year
• Output to rebound in Mar’26 with mines reopening

Mysteel Global: Over January-February this year, China’s total raw coal output reached 762.89 million tonnes (mnt), lower by a slight 0.3% from the first two months of last year, according to the latest release from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on 16 March.

The NBS usually combines January output numbers with February’s to minimise the impact of the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, which typically falls during the two months, Mysteel Global notes.

On a daily basis, January-February output averaged 12.93 mnt/day, down 8.3% from the average of 14.1 mnt/day for last December, Mysteel Global calculated based on the NBS data.

Coal production during the previous two months was mainly concentrated in January, as miners started to take leave gradually from late January to celebrate the CNY holiday that this year spanned 15-23 February, Mysteel Global observed.

According to Mysteel’s survey of 462 thermal coal miners nationwide, their output averaged 5.39 mnt/day during January but then steadily declined from mid-January to touch a low of 4.4 mnt/day on average during 13-19 February which was also the lowest level in about two years.

Another Mysteel nationwide survey of 523 coking coal miners countrywide also found their average output declined from 1.96 mnt/day during January to 1.09 mnt/day over 12-18 February, the lowest in the past six years.

For this month however, with most mines reopened after the holidays and production being ramped up in preparation for summer, market analysts expect China’s raw coal output to grow, should the seasonal trend seen over previous years be repeated.

During the most recent survey week, which ended on March 12, raw coal output among both the 462 thermal coal miners and the 523 coking coal producers climbed for a third consecutive week to average 5.47 mnt/d and 1.94 mnt/d, respectively.

The NBS also reported China’s output of coke for all uses at 82.55 mnt over January-February, up 1.1% from the same period last year.

Note: This article has been written in accordance with a content exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.