- Rebar, wire rod prices forecast to strengthen
- HRCs may remain steady on macro support
Below is the brief near-term outlook for five key steel products Mysteel shares on a weekly basis, drawing upon the results of related surveys and communication with Chinese market participants.
Rebar & wire rod: Prices of the two major long steel items are forecasted to strengthen over 27-31 October. Most traders were proactively selling last week, while end-users continued to procure only on a need-to basis amid cautious market sentiment. Supply-demand fundamentals for steel longs may recover slightly this week, which, together with positive macro signals and resilient cost support, could restore market confidence and underpin the market in the short run.
Hot-rolled coil: HRC prices are expected to be largely steady during this week to 31 October. In the past week, domestic HRC prices rose slightly on firmer cost support as frequent coal mine accidents caused supply disruptions and drove up coking coal prices, but end-users continued to hold a cautious stance, leading to an overall weak downstream demand. Market expectations for macro support in the coming week persist.
Cold-rolled coil: CRC prices are projected to be volatile in a small range this week. Market fundamentals remained the decisive factor for the CRC market lately, with supply still hovering at a relatively high level despite a slight dip last week, and demand stayed lacklustre as downstream users continued to purchase only for immediate production needs, sources said.
CRC production among the 29 steel mills under Mysteel’s tracking stood at 860,700 tonnes (t) over 16-22 October, lower by 1.5% or 13,400 t w-o-w, but the output was still higher by 3.7% or 30,500 t compared to the corresponding survey period last year.
Medium plate: Prices of medium plates are likely to stabilise through 31 October. Despite a slight uptick, downstream demand remained subdued, and inventories showed signs of accumulation last week. Traders in some regions continue to adopt a cautious stance and are urgent to offload their plate stocks in hand amid lukewarm market sentiment.
Medium plate inventories piled in commercial warehouses among the 35 Chinese cities under Mysteel’s coverage edged up by 1.2% w-o-w to 1.12 million tonnes (mnt) by 23 October.
Sections: Section prices are expected to fluctuate slightly over the week over 27-31 October. Although output declined, end-users continued to purchase only low-priced steel sections, leading to mounting inventories. Consequently, most traders are trying to accelerate sales via offering more discounts to clear stocks, weighing on sections’ prices in the spot market.
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