- Weak buying and cautious procurement keep market range-bound
- Supply concerns and higher freight costs provide support
Iron ore fines (Fe 61%) spot prices registered a minor fall d-o-d to average about $95/dmt CFR China on 15 September 2026 even as spot trading improved marginally, while derivatives continued to weaken amid ongoing import losses.
Demand remained poor as mills faced squeezed margins and traders stayed cautious about taking fresh cargoes, fearing further demand deterioration from anticipated production cuts.
Some participants remained optimistic on prices, citing supply concerns in the medium- and low-grade segments. Meanwhile, higher freight rates and lower ore prices could pressure producers and potentially curb supplies, particularly from Brazil. Rising crude oil prices have also added to concerns over seaborne booking costs.
Chinese mills continued to face margin pressure, with some planning blast furnace maintenance after five rounds of coke price increases. Despite this, mills have continued operating blast furnaces as shutdown and restart costs remain high. Pre-holiday restocking was also incomplete ahead of the China National Day holidays.
Recent mill buying has contributed to destocking at Chinese ports, with demand focused mainly on US dollar-denominated cargoes as mills seek to reduce high port inventories.
Iron ore prices are expected to remain under pressure from weak demand and potential production cuts, while medium- and low-grade supply concerns and possible producer-side supply reductions could provide some support.
DCE iron ore futures remain under pressure
January 2027 iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) declined by RMB 3.5/tonne (t) ($0.45/t) to RMB 708/t ($105.5/t) on 15 September against RMB 711.5/t ($106/t) on 14 September. The correction in futures kept the physical market tone cautious, while expectations around steel output, elevated freight costs and continued margin pressure led Chinese buyers to remain selective in their procurement.
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