China: Iron ore imports grow in H1 despite softer steel exports

• June arrivals jump 15% m-o-m to a six-month high
• Lower domestic production and elevated inventories kept intake high

China imported around 629 mnt of iron ore during H1 CY26, compared with around 593 mnt in the corresponding period last year. Imports accelerated in June, rising 15% m-o-m and 6.4% y-o-y to 112.69 mnt, the highest monthly volume since December. Despite the stronger finish, first-half imports remained below the 668 mnt recorded in H2 CY25, indicating that buying activity strengthened primarily towards the end of the period.

Supporting factors:

• Port inventories remain elevated: Iron ore inventories at 34 major Chinese ports continued to build, reaching around 162 mnt by the end of H1 CY26, significantly higher than the corresponding period last year at 138 mnt. The higher stock levels reflected strong import arrivals and ensured ample raw material availability for steelmakers despite softer domestic mine output.
• Lower domestic mine output: China’s run-of-mine (ROM) iron ore production declined to 397 mnt during January-May CY26 from 412 mnt a year earlier, increasing mills’ reliance on imported ore to meet raw material requirements.
• Resolution of CMRG pricing negotiations: Imports gained momentum in Q2 CY26 following the resolution of pricing negotiations between major miner and China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG). Improved cargo clearances supported stronger seaborne arrivals during the quarter.
• Higher seaborne supply: Quarter-end shipments from Australia and Brazil increased as major miners accelerated exports to meet quarterly shipment guidance. Additional seaborne availability further supported import volumes during Q2.

Steel export trends

China exported 54.87 mnt of finished steel during H1 CY26, down 5.6% y-o-y despite shipments remaining resilient in June. June exports stood at 10.32 mnt, easing 0.2% m-o-m but rising 6.6% y-o-y. Seasonally weaker domestic construction activity and competitive export prices continued to encourage mills to target overseas markets, although the stronger June performance was insufficient to offset softer shipments recorded earlier in the year.

Outlook

China’s first-half trade data reflects resilient demand for imported iron ore despite a softer start to the year. Lower domestic mine output if carried forward will lent support to the incoming ore. However, China’s stance of slightly softer crude steel production figures for 2026 will definitely weigh on imports volume.