China: Iron ore imports fall 8% y-o-y in Q1CY’25 amid subdued steel demand

• Demand from construction, manufacturing sluggish
• Uncertainty over policy support, export tariffs

China’s imports of iron ore and concentrates touched over 285 million tonnes (mnt) in the first quarter of calendar year 2025 (Q1CY’25), reflecting an 8% y-o-y decline compared to the corresponding period in 2024, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China

In March 2024, China imported around 94 mnt of iron ore and its concentrates, recorded a drop of 7% y-o-y as compared to the previous year.

Factors behind decrease in iron ore imports:

• Fall in crude steel output: The crude steel production in January-February, 2025 stood at 166.3 mnt, down by 2% y-o-y as compared to the previous year.
• Global iron ore prices drop sharp $19/t y-o-y: Benchmark Fe62% Australian fines prices sharply dropped by around $104/t CFR China in Q1CY’25. This sharp correction was largely driven by heightened concerns over potential tariffs on steel exports, which adversely affected market confidence across the steel value chain. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding China’s Two Sessions curtailed spot market activity, with traders and mills showing restraint in procurement. Although limited buying interest was observed, particularly for deliveries scheduled in the latter half of April that may attract a premium, overall secondary market transactions remained subdued. Miners reported only a few successful sales during the quarter, reflecting the cautious sentiment prevailing among buyers.
• Weaker steel demand: The decline in imports was primarily driven by subdued demand in the downstream steel sector. Weak consumption from construction and manufacturing segments, along with limited government stimulus, weighed heavily on steel mills, leading to a reduction in production and, consequently, raw material procurement.
• Weather-related disruptions: Cyclonic activity in Australia during February disrupted shipments, delaying deliveries that were initially expected to arrive by March. This weather-related delay was a key contributor to the reduced import volume.

Outlook

Iron ore imports from China are expected to recover in Q2CY’25, supported by seasonal demand improvement and anticipated policy support.