China: Domestic steel demand to remain above 800 mnt during 2026-30, CISA projects

• Trade restrictions add pressure on Chinese steel exports
• Global steelmaking capacity to rise by 165 mnt over 2025-27

China’s domestic steel demand is expected to remain above 800 million tonnes (mnt) annually during 2026-30, although consumption is likely to trend lower over the next decade, China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) president Liu Jian said at the 15th China International Steel Congress in Shanghai on 20 September.

At the 15th China International Steel Congress in Shanghai on 20 September, Liu reviewed the development of China’s steel industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and outlined its roadmap and key targets for the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

China’s steel industry has already undergone significant capacity and output adjustments. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, crude steel output was cut by more than 100 mnt cumulatively, while industry measures were introduced to address “involution-style” competition. Mergers and reorganisations among steelmakers have also increased industry concentration.

The concentration ratio of China’s 10 largest steelmakers is expected to reach 43.1% in 2025, up from 38.9% in 2020. CISA aims to raise this to 50% by 2030. Over the same period, EAF-based steel production is targeted to reach 20% of total output, while domestic iron ore resources are expected to meet 26% of requirements. The share of overseas Chinese equity mines is targeted at 13%.

Meanwhile, global steelmaking capacity is expected to increase by 165 mnt, or 6.7%, during 2025-27, according to CISA. Liu said the increase comes amid weak economic recovery, high decarbonisation costs, and rising trade barriers, adding to competitive pressure in the global steel market.

Chinese steel exports are also facing increased trade restrictions. CISA said Chinese steel products were subject to 111 initial trade remedy investigations between 2020 and the first half of 2026. Direct and indirect steel exports currently account for around 40% of global steel production.

On the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), CISA said the EU’s carbon emission default values are significantly higher than China’s actual emission levels, which could increase the carbon costs faced by Chinese steel exporters. CISA estimates that the cost of China’s downstream steel exports to the EU could increase by around 7% by 2028, adding approximately EUR 1.42 billion in costs. Liu called for greater international cooperation on carbon accounting, low-carbon governance and raw material supply chains, while opposing further trade protectionism.