China’s cumulative crude steel production for January and February 2025 stood at 166.3 million tonnes (mnt), a marginal drop by 1.5% y-o-y against 167.95 mnt in January and February 2024, as per data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Highlights
Domestic Market Sentiments: China’s steel market continues to grapple with persistent oversupply and sluggish demand. While the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has yet to specify production curtailment targets, their recent statements have fueled market anticipation of more significant production cuts compared to previous years. This heightened expectation is driven by a perceived need for more aggressive measures to address the prevailing market imbalances.
Aggressive exports: China’s sluggish real estate and construction sectors have weakened domestic steel demand, leading to a surplus that is being exported. Competitive pricing has helped Chinese steel maintain its global market share and attract international buyers. China’s cumulative steel exports for January and February 2025 stood at 16.972 million tonnes (mnt), up by 6.7% y-o-y against 15.90 mnt in January and February 2024, as per General Administration of Customs.
Outlook
China’s crude steel production plans for 2025 will play a vital role in shaping the steel market outlook, as a potential 50 mnt output cut could trigger a significant shift in global supply and demand dynamics. However, with ongoing economic uncertainties, fundamentals are expected to remain weak, necessitating substantial production cuts to rebalance the market and spark a meaningful recovery.
Leave a Reply