- Heavy rain, weak domestic demand weigh on production
- Softening global demand leads to decline in steel exports
China’s crude steel production in October 2025 stood at 72 million tonnes (mnt), down by 12.1% y-o-y as compared to 81.88 mnt in October 2024, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
In January-October 2025, the country produced around 817.87 mnt, representing a decline of 3.9% y-o-y against 847.95 mnt in the same period a year ago.
Factors affecting output
Slow domestic demand: China’s crude steel output fell in October 2025, driven by a combination of factors. Heavy rain and flooding in northern provinces forced several blast furnaces to reduce production. Furthermore, the National Day holiday (effective from 1 October-8 October), weaker domestic demand, and falling export sales resulted in thin inquiries, leading to cautious production sentiment.
Decline in steel exports: China’s steel exports in October decreased by 12.5% y-o-y to 9.782 mnt from 11.18 mnt a year ago. China’s steel exports dropped due to weakening global demand and increasing international trade protectionism. Key overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America, implemented stricter anti-dumping policies, compelling domestic mills to reduce their reliance on foreign sales. Additionally, fewer working days from the Golden Week holiday contributed to an m-o-m volume decline.
Outlook
The short-term outlook suggests continued weakness in China’s steel sector. Output will remain pressured by sluggish domestic consumption and further export declines, driven by anti-dumping measures and global demand weakness. Mills are expected to maintain cautious production cuts to balance supply amid ongoing environmental restrictions and limited inquiries.
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