China, the world’s largest steel producer, recorded billet imports of 0.95 million tonnes (mn t) in Aug’21, up by 7% m-o-m as compared to 0.89 mn t in Jul’21, as per customs data collated by SteelMint.
Steel production curbs for the past few months amidst a hike in rebar futures and higher Chinese domestic prices resulted in an increase in imports, SteelMint understands.
Iran leading exporter
Iran continued to be the absolute leader in shipments of steel billets to China at 0.24 mn t in Aug’21, witnessing a noticeable increase of 85% m-o-m as against 0.13 mn t in Jul’21. However, in the coming months, these volumes are likely to remain lower owing to limited allocations due to power outages.
Vietnam, too, retained its second position in the top exporters’ list in Aug’21 with 0.12 mn t followed by India with 0.11 mn t, a m-o-m increase of 9% and 83%, respectively.
China’s billet imports down y-o-y in Jan-Aug’21
Imports of the material into China stood at 6.78 mn t in Jan-Aug’21, a significant decline of 38% y-o-y as against 10.9 mn t in Jan-Aug’20. Considering y-o-y, Vietnam was the largest exporter of steel billets with 1.54 mn t followed by Iran and Indonesia with 1.10 mn t and 1.04 mn t, respectively.
Price trends
SteelMint’s price assessment for China’s billet (150*150mm, 3SP) import prices rose to $717/t CFR levels in end-Jul’21 from $650/t CFR levels in end-Jun’21.
Outlook
The near-term outlook remains bearish as Chinese steelmakers are likely to be passive in the upcoming days due to uncertainty in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rebar futures, lower exports from Iran, which were volatile during the past few days. However, import volumes from Gulf countries are likely to pick up as decent bookings were reported in August and September.
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