Bulk coal freight rates to India remain volatile amid mixed regional trends

• Atlantic strength offsets weak Asian activity
• Baltic index rises on strong Capesize earnings

Dry bulk coal freight rates to India witnessed a volatile trend during the week, shaped by mixed regional dynamics, fluctuating bunker prices, and evolving global market cues. While firmer demand in select routes and tightening tonnage in parts of the Atlantic lent support, subdued activity in Asia and cautious sentiment among market participants kept overall momentum in check.

“The market maintained a positive tone through the week, with rising activity levels. In the Atlantic, vessel demand increased—particularly for trans-Atlantic trades – supported by tighter prompt tonnage in the north, while fronthaul routes also saw gains despite an underlying surplus of vessels,” a ship broker said.

Another source said, “The market remained subdued with generally soft sentiment across regions. Asian activity was limited, though slight tonnage tightening was seen in the North Pacific, while rates stayed under pressure amid bunker price uncertainty.”

A charterer mentioned, “Demand on the Indonesia-India route exceeded that of Indonesia-China, though at lower rates.”

Route-wise updates

Why coal freight rates witnessed volatility

• Bunker price volatility: Prices declined by $201/tonne (t) w-o-w to $1,003/t on 20 March, but remained highly volatile through the week, driven by sharp crude oil fluctuations amid escalating Middle East tensions, supply uncertainty, and cautious market sentiment.
• Brent crude futures rise w-o-w: Brent crude oil futures rose by about $8.22/bbl w-o-w to $107.20/bbl (April 2026 contract) on 20 March, driven by escalating Middle East tensions, concerns over potential supply disruptions, and renewed volatility in global energy markets.
• Baltic index rises w-o-w: The Baltic Index increased by 85 points w-o-w to 2,057 on 19 March, driven by stronger Capesize earnings. Panamax rose by 74 points to 1,909 on improved fixtures, while Supramax declined by 61 points to 1,229 due to weak minor bulk demand.
• DCE coke futures gain w-o-w: Coke futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by around RMB 7/t ($1/t) w-o-w to RMB 1,740.5/t ($252.23/t) on 20 March, supported by steady steel production, restocking by mills, and firm raw material costs, which lent support to market sentiment.

Outlook

Near-term coal freight rates to India are likely to stay firm, supported by high bunker prices and steady demand, though ample tonnage may limit gains.