Australian thermal coal export shipments have risen by 10% m-o-m to 14 million tonnes (mnt) in October, CoalMint’s vessel line-up data revealed. Despite weak European demand, a declining trend of Australian coal prices helped exports rise modestly.
Shipments to a few Asian countries such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam rose as a drop in prices attracted buying interest. However, shipments to key buyers such as Japan, and India fell amid weak demand.
Australian 6000 kcal/kg NAR grade coal prices declined over 15% m-o-m to $373/t FOB as sufficient winter inventory build up in Europe compelled power utilities to go slow on procurement.
Trade flow to Asia
*Qty in mnt
Exports to Taiwan rose by 16% m-o-m amid rising power demand and with the country reducing its LNG imports due to higher prices.
Shipments to South Korea surged by 67% m-o-m as its power generating units continued to issue tenders for the upcoming month.
Exports to Vietnam rose significantly by 420% m-o-m in October due to strong winter restocking demand. After two months of sharp decline in Australian coal prices, Vietnamese buyers raised purchases.
Shipments to Japan fell for the second consecutive month as volatile Australian coal prices deterred buyers from placing spot bookings.
Rising domestic coal output in India compelled utilities to adopt a wait-and-watch mode and seek further clarity in prices going ahead.
Exports to Europe subdued
*Qty in mnt
Amid mild weather conditions and sufficient inventory build up, shipments to Europe took a hit in October and exports to Poland fell by 62%.
Shipments to the Netherlands and Italy also fell as power companies stepped back coal purchases in a bid to bring down emissions during the winters.
Outlook
Australian thermal coal exports are likely to fall further amid declining European demand. Shipments to Asia, on the other hand, may gain some strength if prices continue to weaken.
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