Australia’s coking coal exports decline 25% m-o-m in Jul’25 on sluggish global demand

• Exports down m-o-m on weak demand, port disruptions
• Late-month price rebound due to stronger Chinese sentiment

Australia’s coking coal exports witnessed a significant month-on-month (m-o-m) decline of 25% in July 2025, falling to 11.74 million tonnes (mnt) compared to 15.6 mnt in June 2025. This sharp drop underscores a combination of softening demand from key Asian buyers, logistical constraints at major ports and fluctuating price dynamics.

Cumulative exports reflect annual contraction

In the first seven months of 2025 (January-July), cumulative exports stood at 84.2 mnt, down 4% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 87.5 mnt in the corresponding period of 2024. While exports remained relatively stable in the initial months of the year, the recent downturn in July has dragged overall performance, revealing the impact of seasonal slowdowns and shifting demand dynamics.

Import demand from key markets subdued

A breakdown of exports by destination reveals significant m-o-m declines across several major markets. Shipments to India dropped by 39%, totalling 2.75 mnt in July. Exports to Japan and China also registered declines of 12% and 50%, reaching 2.89 mnt and 0.5 mnt, respectively.

Vietnam also recorded a 33% m-o-m decrease, with imports falling to 0.64 mnt. Conversely, South Korea emerged as the only major market to post a notable increase, with imports rising 33% m-o-m to 2.21 mnt.

Port operations reflect declining export momentum

Export volumes at key Australian ports mirrored the overall market weakness. The Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal (DBCT) recorded a 30% m-o-m decline in shipments, handling 3.38 mnt in July.

Gladstone Port saw a more moderate 5% reduction, with exports totalling 4.5 mnt, while Hay Point Port reported a sharper 43% drop to 2.5 mnt.

Other ports experienced similar trends. Abbot Point Port witnessed an 11% m-o-m decline to 1.2 mnt, whereas Newcastle Port reported a steep 49% decrease, with volumes falling to 0.12 mnt. Port Kembla also experienced a sharp reduction of 50%, managing just 0.08 mnt during the month.

Prices dip before late-July rebound 

Australian coking coal prices declined by $2/t m-o-m in July due to lacklustre demand from key importers. However, prices rebounded in the second half of the month as buying activity picked up. This recovery was supported by an upswing in Chinese metallurgical coke prices and improved sentiment in the Chinese steel industry, encouraging some buyers to return to the market.

Outlook

Australia’s coking coal exports are likely to stabilise in the near term, supported by restocking demand from India and Japan and a recovery in Chinese steel output. The late-July price rebound indicates renewed buyer interest following earlier procurement delays. However, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic amid global economic uncertainties, freight volatility, and evolving regulations, prompting exporters to adopt a prudent, demand-driven approach.