ASEAN steel demand expected to reach 90 mnt in 2026, SEAISI says

• Regional steel production capacity of 51 mnt falls short of demand projections
• TRQs emerging as possible import management tool alongside trade remedies

Steel demand in the six major ASEAN countries in 2025 is projected to have increased 7.6% y-o-y to 87 million tonnes (mnt), 1 mnt higher than the preliminary May estimate, and is likely to reach 90 mnt for the first time in 2026, according to Wee Jin Yeoh, Secretary-General of the Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI).

Meanwhile, ASEAN’s annual crude steel production capacity stands at only around 51 mnt, highlighting the region’s reliance on imports to meet domestic demand.

“There is sufficient steel demand in ASEAN. There is no excess capacity. The problem is imported steel,” said Yeoh in a keynote address at the 2nd ASEAN Policy Makers Conference held in Manila, Philippines, this week.

Yeoh highlighted tariff-rate quotas (TRQs), which are increasingly being adopted as an import management measure, as an option for ASEAN countries to consider within a broader framework for managing steel imports.

Trade barriers add to export challenges

Yeoh noted that trade measures introduced by the US and Europe have made it increasingly difficult for ASEAN steel producers to export. At the same time, anti-dumping (AD) measures have not fully addressed import concerns, as Chinese steel producers have sought ways to circumvent such measures, making effective enforcement more challenging.

Against this backdrop, countries including Canada, the UK, and Brazil have introduced TRQs as an additional trade measure. Yeoh acknowledged that WTO compliance of such measures remains a separate consideration but said they could serve as a tool for countries seeking to protect their domestic markets.

He also stressed the need for ASEAN countries to coordinate their trade remedy measures to address import-related concerns more effectively across the region.

Note: This article is published as part of a content exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and BigMint.