- Soybean output forecast at 52.5 mnt as crushing reaches 44.8 MMT
- Sunflower production projected at a record 7.4 mnt amid strong margins
Argentina’s oilseed sector is expected to expand in marketing year (MY) 2026/27, supported by firm vegetable oil prices, favourable producer margins and expectations of above-normal rainfall under a developing El Niño pattern. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s October 7 report, soybean production is forecast to rise 4% Y-o-Y, sunflower output is projected to reach a record, and peanut production is expected to recover following weather-related losses in the previous season.
Higher domestic processing activity and sustained global demand for vegetable oils are expected to support the sector. However, rising input costs, excessive rainfall, logistics congestion and potential recovery in competing origins remain key uncertainties.
Soybean production and crushing to increase
Argentina’s soybean production is forecast at 52.5 million tonnes (mnt) in MY2026/27, up 8% from the previous forecast and 4% from the estimated 50.5 mnt harvested in MY2025/26. Planted area is projected at 17.4 million hectares, with an average yield of 3.07 tons per hectare.
Favourable prices and lower production costs relative to corn are expected to encourage soybean planting. Soybean oil prices have risen 37% since September 2025, while soybean meal prices have increased 23%. Corn production costs are estimated to be around 50% higher than soybean costs, encouraging acreage shifts, particularly in northern Argentina. Concerns over corn stunt disease are also influencing planting decisions.
However, fuel costs are projected to rise 24% and crop-protection costs 7%, while fertiliser costs are expected to decline nearly 10%. A strong El Niño could improve yields, but excessive rainfall may delay planting, increase disease pressure and complicate harvesting.
Soybean crushing is forecast at 44.8 mnt, the second-highest level on record, compared with 43.5 mnt in MY2025/26. Soybean meal production is projected at 34 mnt, with exports reaching 30.5 mnt. Soybean oil production is expected to reach 8.96 mnt, supported by demand from biodiesel producers in Europe and Canada.
Argentina’s soybean imports are forecast at 6.5 mnt, down from 7 mnt in the previous season, primarily because of lower expected availability from Paraguay. Whole-soybean exports are projected at 5.5 mnt as the country continues to prioritise domestic processing.
Sunflower output reaches a record
Sunflower production is forecast at 7.4 mnt, with planted area estimated at 3.3 million hectares, up 200,000 hectares from the previous year. Around 31% of the intended area had been planted at the time of reporting, approximately 10 percentage points ahead of the five-year average.
Strong returns, improved seed availability and lower fertiliser requirements than corn are supporting expansion, particularly in Chaco and Formosa. Sunflower crushing is projected at 6 mnt, while sunflower oil production and exports are forecast at 2.53 mnt and 2 mnt, respectively. Processing margins are estimated at $100-180/t.
Investment is also expanding. A multinational company plans a $400 million sunflower-crushing facility at Bahía Blanca, expected to operate by MY2028/29, while a separate $100 million investment is planned to reactivate a plant near Rosario. However, a recovery in Russian and Ukrainian sunflower supplies could pressure global prices and crushing margins.
Sunflower seed exports are forecast at 1.1 mnt in MY2026/27, although some industry contacts expect greater competition from alternative origins.
Peanut production and exports to recover
Peanut production is forecast at 1.56 mnt, compared with 1.1 mnt in MY2025/26. Planted area is projected at 430,000 hectares, with some industry estimates reaching 450,000 hectares. Processors are offering land rents of $1,200/hectare or more as they compete for acreage.
The previous harvest was affected by repeated rainfall, muddy fields and fungal problems. Industry contacts estimate that at least 10% of production was lost, while quality deterioration diverted more peanuts towards crushing. Prices have reached $1,750/t amid tight supplies and concerns over quality.
Peanut crushing is forecast at 220,000 t in MY2026/27, down from an estimated 350,000 t in the previous season as quality improves. Exports are projected to recover to 1.2 mnt, supporting Argentina’s position as the world’s leading peanut exporter.
Logistics and market outlook
Argentina’s export infrastructure remains under pressure, with port terminals receiving nearly 10,000 trucks daily and commercial grain storage estimated at 54 mnt in early September 2026. The Paraná-Paraguay Waterway concession introduced a 13.5% toll reduction, from $4.30 to $3.80 per net registered tonnes, with estimated annual logistics savings of $375-456 million for agricultural exporters.
In the short term, higher oilseed output and strong processing demand could improve export availability. However, rainfall distribution, input costs, farmer selling, logistics congestion and competing-origin supplies will determine how effectively Argentina converts higher production into export growth.
Leave a Reply