- Evening shortages persist despite higher daytime supply
- Thermal expansion needs dependable fuel, maintenance, delivery support
India’s debate over additional thermal capacity is becoming increasingly urgent as electricity demand grows and shortages persist after sunset.
At the India Energy Summit on 13 October, Central Electricity Authority chairperson Ghanshyam Prasad indicated that additional thermal capacity requirements could rise towards 115 GW against the 97 GW estimated earlier in 2023. The assessment remains provisional, with the requirement indicated around FY32-34.
Additionally, NTPC chairman and managing director Gurdeep Singh emphasised the need to ensure affordable electricity is available when consumers need it, supported by storage, grid flexibility and domestic technology. Together, these priorities address a problem already visible in October’s operating data: India can meet a substantially higher daytime peak while still facing shortages during lower-demand evening hours.
Demand rises 24% in Oct despite easing from Sep
During 1-11 October, the average of India’s daily maximum demand met increased by 24% y-o-y to 251.93 GW, from 203.19 GW.
Maximum demand met reached 260.73 GW on 5 October. Although below September’s record, this remained approximately 25% above the highest demand met during the corresponding October 2025 period.
Gross generation increased by 22.7% to 63,917 MU. Coal-fired generation rose by 27.2%, supplying nearly 79% of the net increase.
Renewable generation also expanded strongly, rising by 46.9%. However, hydro output declined by 24.8%, increasing the requirement for other sources to support the system.
The challenge therefore extends beyond adding enough annual electricity generation. Supply must be available during the hours when consumers require it.
Shortage becomes visible after sunset
NLDC’s solar and non-solar peak observations illustrate the difference.
On 5 October, India met 260.73 GW during solar hours without a reported shortage at that peak. During the non-solar peak, demand met was approximately 24 GW lower, yet the shortage exceeded 5.5 GW.
A similar pattern appeared on 3 October: the system served over 256 GW during solar hours but recorded a 5.8 GW shortage during a lower non-solar peak.
These figures show the importance of dependable evening supply. They do not establish solar withdrawal as the sole cause: generation outages, fuel availability, hydro conditions and network constraints also affect shortages.
Exchange prices reveal cost of scarce availability
The simple average of daily IEX day-ahead prices during 1-11 October reached INR 7.43/kWh, almost three times the corresponding 2025 level.
Purchase bids increased more than sixfold, while sell bids halved. Final scheduled volumes nevertheless declined by approximately 4.9%.
That combination indicates greater buying pressure against limited offered supply. It also shows why capacity planning must consider affordability alongside reliability: shortages expose buyers to expensive replacement electricity.
Sunday, 11 October, brought relief as demand moderated. Non-solar peak shortages fell to 59 MW and the daily average exchange price eased to INR 5.93/kWh. The improvement demonstrates how sensitive the balance remains to changes in demand.
Thermal expansion must include plant availability
Prasad also highlighted pressure on maintenance schedules, with sustained demand limiting opportunities to shut units for servicing. Fuel availability has become another concern following inventory depletion.
Additional generating units could provide both supply and operational headroom, allowing existing plants to undergo maintenance without placing the system under equivalent pressure.
However, installed capacity alone cannot guarantee dependable electricity. Plants need adequate coal, functioning equipment and transmission access. Expansion plans therefore need to align commissioning with mines, rail evacuation, plant unloading facilities and inventory requirements.
Storage addresses timing gap
Singh’s emphasis on storage and flexibility complements the case for thermal capacity. Storage can move electricity generated during solar hours into the evening, while flexible generation can respond as renewable output changes.
Storage planning must consider both output and duration. Illustratively, supplying 5 GW for four hours requires 20 GWh of usable energy before allowing for losses and reserve margins. This is an example of sizing, rather than an estimate derived from a single shortage observation.
Domestic capability in storage, generation equipment and grid components also matters for delivering projects reliably and managing dependence on international supply chains.
Coal stocks are stabilising, but buffer remains thin
Improved coal deliveries have brought power plants closer to balance. During 7-11 October, receipts exceeded consumption by approximately 0.20 mnt, reversing the deficit recorded during the first six days.
Total stocks recovered from 20.44 mnt on 6 October to 20.87 mnt on 11 October. Nevertheless, 87 plants remained critical, and inventories were approximately 8.25 mnt below their 1 September level.
The recovery is encouraging, but much of the recent receipt surplus occurred at imported-coal-based plants. Domestic-coal plants achieved only a marginal collective surplus during 7-11 October.
BigMint assessment
October’s data strengthen the case for planning around dependable supply throughout the day. Strong renewable growth is helping meet a much larger load, but weaker hydro and recurring evening shortages leave substantial pressure on thermal generation.
Additional thermal capacity, storage, flexible operation and stronger transmission each address different parts of that requirement. Fuel delivery and maintenance determine how much planned capacity is actually available.
For the coal market, this points to continued importance of reliable deliveries and adequate plant stocks. The immediate test is sustained inventory rebuilding; the longer-term test is commissioning a power system that can serve rising demand affordably after sunset.
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