Global bunker fuel markets stay firm w-o-w amid elevated crude prices and Middle East tensions

• Brent nears $97/bbl; Singapore VLSFO extends gains
• Middle East tensions keep bunker markets firm

Global bunker fuel markets remained firm in the week ended 25 July 2026, with benchmark Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) prices strengthening in Singapore and Rotterdam, while easing modestly in Fujairah after last week’s sharp rally. The market continued to draw support from higher crude oil prices, as Brent and WTI extended their weekly gains amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, supply disruption concerns, and elevated war-risk premiums for tanker movements.

Marine Gas Oil (MGO) prices rose across all three major bunkering hubs, supported by firmer distillate markets and higher refinery feedstock costs. High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) also strengthened on resilient bunker demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Although Fujairah’s VLSFO prices eased from last week’s spike, supply remained tight amid regional shipping risks and cautious supplier sentiment.

Regional bunker markets

• Singapore: VLSFO prices climbed $60/tonne (t) w-o-w to $836/t, marking the strongest increase among the major bunkering hubs. Firm bunker demand, limited prompt availability and sustained strength in the Asian fuel oil market kept supplier offers elevated, while ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to underpin market sentiment
• Rotterdam: VLSFO prices inched up marginally by $1/t w-o-w to $681/t. Support came from firmer crude oil and distillate markets, while steady bunker demand across Northwest Europe helped maintain price stability. However, comfortable fuel inventories and adequate supply availability prevented a more pronounced rise.
• Fujairah: In contrast, VLSFO prices fell $27/t w-o-w to $806/t, partially reversing the sharp gains recorded in the previous week. The decline was largely driven by profit-booking and easing buying interest after the recent rally. Nevertheless, bunker sentiment remained firm as regional supply risks, shipping disruptions and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continued to provide underlying support to prices.

Factors influencing bunker prices

• Brent crude extends rally: Brent crude futures settled at $96.78/barrel (bbl) on 24 July, up $10.80/bbl from $85.98/bbl a week earlier. Prices remained elevated as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over potential disruptions to crude flows through key maritime trade routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting supply-side uncertainty and higher geopolitical risk premiums continued to support crude oil markets despite the absence of any significant physical supply disruptions.
• WTI gains on supply concerns: WTI crude futures settled at $89.31/bbl on 24 July, gaining $6.82/bbl w-o-w from $82.49/bbl. Prices were supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from heightened U.S.-Iran tensions and security risks in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. However, expectations of sufficient global crude production, particularly from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers, along with comfortable inventories, tempered bullish momentum and limited further upside.

Outlook

Global bunker prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, with volatility likely to persist. Elevated crude oil prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and continued security concerns around key shipping corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, are expected to underpin bunker fuel markets.

That said, comfortable fuel availability at major bunkering hubs and any improvement in the geopolitical landscape could ease upward price pressure. Following the recent rally, markets may also witness periods of consolidation as participants assess evolving supply risks and demand fundamentals.