- LME copper inventories down 20% since May-end
- Spot copper trade slows as bid-offer gaps widen
Copper cathode prices in western India increased w-o-w on 16 July 2026, supported by a sharp recovery in LME copper prices and firmer import premiums. Buying activity, however, remained largely requirement-based as downstream consumers continued to exercise caution amid elevated prices and uncertainty surrounding the proposed US copper import tariffs.
As per BigMint’s assessment, ex-Mumbai copper cathode prices rose to around INR 1,320,000/t on 16 July from nearly INR 1,310,000/t last week. Similarly, Ahmedabad prices increased to around INR 1,322,000/t from approximately INR 1,312,000/t over the same period.
The increase in domestic prices was primarily driven by stronger global benchmarks. LME copper prices climbed to around $13,600/t from nearly $13,200/t last week, supported by a weaker US dollar and continued drawdown in exchange inventories.
LME copper inventories declined 1.5% w-o-w, extending the ongoing reduction in exchange stocks, and have fallen by nearly 20% since the end of May, reinforcing expectations of tightening physical availability.
Meanwhile, MCX copper prices registered a 2.8% w-o-w increase, lending support to domestic cathode prices.
Domestic market sentiment
Domestic suppliers-maintained firm offers throughout the week with limited flexibility, supported by stronger LME copper prices and higher import costs. Sellers largely held offers in anticipation of further gains in global prices.
Meanwhile, buyers continued to procure on a hand-to-mouth basis, with wire rod, cable and brass manufacturers purchasing mainly against confirmed orders. Higher prices prompted most consumers to limit buying to immediate requirements, while some delayed fresh enquiries expecting a correction. Spot market activity remained moderate as wider bid-offer gaps prolonged negotiations and restrained deal closures despite healthy enquiry levels.
Global inventory trends continued to provide underlying support to the market. Inventory movements across major exchanges remained divergent. Stocks registered with the CME continued to build as material flowed into the United States ahead of any potential import tariffs, while inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have declined by nearly 80% since mid-March, reflecting tightening domestic availability in China.
Despite the supportive global fundamentals, refined copper availability in India remained comfortable following the continued ramp-up in domestic production, ensuring sufficient spot supplies across major consuming regions. Domestic cathode prices continued to closely track movements in the LME and the USD/INR exchange rate, while spot market premiums remained firm amid balanced domestic supply conditions.
Overall, sellers continued to maintain a bullish stance, buyers remained cautious, keeping spot trading activity moderate and largely driven by immediate demand rather than inventory building.
Outlook
Going forward, domestic copper cathode prices are expected to remain supported by firm LME prices, tightening global inventories and stronger import premiums. However, procurement activity is likely to remain requirement-based until greater clarity emerges on the proposed US copper import tariffs. While declining LME and SHFE inventories indicate tightening physical supply, continued stock accumulation at the CME and policy uncertainty are expected to keep market sentiment cautious in the near term.
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