India: Domestic aluminium prices surge w-o-w amid tight supply signals

• Iranian strikes on key Middle East facilities raise global supply risks
• Demand healthy but gas shortages threaten downstream production

Domestic aluminium prices in India recorded a sharp w-o-w increase as of 2 April 2026, tracking strong gains in aluminium futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) amid improved market sentiment.

As per BigMint’s assessment, P1020 ingot prices in Delhi NCR rose by INR 15,000/tonne (t), or around 4%, to INR 353,000/t from INR 338,000/t on 27 March 2026. Similarly, Mumbai prices increased by INR 20,000/t, or nearly 6%, to around INR 355,000/t on 2 April 2026, compared to INR 335,000/t on 26 March 2026.

How did Indian, global exchanges perform?

Domestic aluminium futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) increased by INR 18,400/t, or around 6%, w-o-w to INR 352,000/t, compared to INR 333,600/t in the previous week.

In the global market, 3-month aluminium prices on the LME rose by $165/t, or about 5%, w-o-w to $3,445/t from $3,280/t. Meanwhile, stocks at LME-registered warehouses declined by 12,575 t, or 2.9%, to 414,175 t.

Meanwhile, aluminium prices surged around 6% on 30 March 2026 to about $3,492/t on the LME, driven by Iranian strikes on key Middle East facilities, including Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain. With the region accounting for around 9% of global supply, rising geopolitical tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have heightened supply concerns, pushing prices toward multi-year highs and keeping the market volatile.

Market insights

A major primary producer reported domestic P1020 aluminium prices at INR 352,000-353,000/t ex-Delhi, with India premiums holding around $320-330/t above LME cash. Demand remains healthy, but LPG and propane shortages could impact downstream production, and near-term demand may soften depending on gas availability.

Reflecting the recent market correction, NALCO raised its primary aluminium ingot (P1020, 99.7%) prices by INR 6,600/t to INR 357,000/t on 28 March 2026, up from INR 350,400/t on 24 March.

Meanwhile, BALCO’s prices increased by INR 35,500/t, or around 9.5%, from INR 373,250/t on 26 March to INR 408,750/t by 1-2 April, while Hindalco’s P1020 ingot prices rose by INR 29,500/t, or about 7.7%, from INR 383,250/t to INR 412,750/t over the same period.

Outlook

Domestic aluminium prices are likely to remain firm in a week’s time, supported by tight global supply, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and constrained domestic availability. Any prolonged LPG or propane shortages could moderate downstream demand in India, but strong premiums and limited inventories suggest continued price volatility. Market participants will closely watch developments around Gulf smelters and shipping routes, which will largely determine near-term supply stability and price direction.