- HRC prices rise, rebar remains flat w-o-w
- Billet prices inch up despite muted demand
China’s steel prices edged higher this week, supported by gains in SHFE futures. Domestic hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices rose slightly, while rebar prices remained unchanged w-o-w. Raw materials, including iron ore, billets, and coking coal, also saw marginal gains.
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) reported that total steel inventory at key Chinese enterprises reached 14.75 million tonnes (mnt) in early-December 2025 (1-10 December 2025), up by 470,000 tonnes (t) or 3.3% from 14.28 mnt in late-November.
China’s crude steel production stood at 69.87 mnt in November 2025, down by 10.9% y-o-y from 78.4 mnt in November 2024, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). For the January-November period, total production reached 891.67 mnt, marking a decline of 4% decline from 926.35 mnt in the same period last year.
1. Iron ore spot prices surge w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines prices rose by $3/dmt to $108/dmt CFR China on 19 December w-o-w, supported by a bullish market outlook. Trading activity improved, especially for medium-grade fines. Sentiment remained positive on hopes of support for the steel market in an expected stimulus package from the government. Pockets of restocking activity were recorded for February delivery cargoes, which helped support near-term fundamentals.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports were recorded at 145.5 mnt on 18 December, rising by 1.7 mnt w-o-w, as per data published by SteelHome.
a) Spot pellet premium remains stable w-o-w: The spot premium for Fe 65% grade pellets remained firm at $17.8/t CFR China on 17 December.
b) Spot lump premium dips w-o-w: The spot lump premium dropped by $0.01/dmtu w-o-w to $0.045/dmtu on 19 December.
2. China’s met coke market faces fresh downside pressure: Market participants in China’s metallurgical coke sector on 16 December expected a new round of price cuts, amid persistently weak near-term demand fundamentals. The market outlook remained subdued, with limited consumption visibility from downstream steelmakers. Additionally, softening cost support has further weighed on sentiment, reinforcing bearish expectations.
Australian coking coal prices rose to their highest level since August 2024, with FOB assessments reaching $217/t, marking a w-o-w increase of $7/t. Reflecting the broader uptrend, BigMint’s Premium Hard Coking Coal (PHCC) index was assessed at $238/t on a CNF Paradip, India basis on 19 December, up by $11/t compared to the previous assessment on 12 December 2025.
3. Chinese billet prices inch up w-o-w: Chinese billet prices posted a marginal w-o-w increase of RMB 10/t to RMB 2,950/t by 19 December from RMB 2,940/t on 12 December. SHFE rebar prices recorded a stronger gain of RMB 38/t w-o-w to RMB 3,076/t from RMB 3,038/t over the same period, despite mid-week volatility.
The week was marked by muted winter demand, tight liquidity, and uncertainty around export rules, which kept buying interest subdued. Amid firmer raw material sentiment, mills resisted further price cuts, but low trade volumes and cautious year-end positioning capped upside. Overall sentiment remained cautious.
4. Domestic HRC prices inch up w-o-w: Domestic HRC prices in China increased marginally by RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,090/t ($439/t) on 19 December from RMB 3,070/t ($436/t) on 12 December, following the upward trend in SHFE HRC futures, which edged up by RMB 30/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,274/t ($465/t) on 19 December from RMB 3,244/t ($461/t) a week earlier.
Meanwhile, China’s HRC export offers declined by $5/t w-o-w to around $465/t FOB on 19 December compared with $470/t FOB in the previous week.
5. Rebar prices remain unchanged w-o-w: China’s rebar prices remained unchanged w-o-w at RMB 3,120 ($443/t) on 19 December, despite the rise in SHFE futures (January 2026 contract), which inched up by RMB 33/t ($5/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,116/t ($443/t) compared with RMB 3,083/t ($438/t) on 12 December.
Domestic rebar prices remained stable due to a contraction in rebar inventories in several regions of China, a result of lower output from steel mills in recent weeks.
Outlook
China’s steel prices are expected to remain largely stable in December 2025. Firmer raw material prices and higher SHFE futures are likely to provide support to the market. However, weak demand and uncertainty surrounding export policies are expected to limit any sharp price increase and keep overall market sentiment cautious.
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