Europe: India, Turkiye exhaust HRC export quotas early in Q4CY’25

• Early quota exhaustion reflects exporters’ caution over CBAM
• UK, Serbia continue to hold sizable unused HRC quota balances

The European Union (EU) has released the quota utilisation data for hot-rolled coil (HRC) imports for the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4CY’25), covering the period from 1 September to 31 December 2025. As of 21 November, the EU’s steel import quota utilisation data shows a mixed picture, with countries like Turkiye and India already exhausting their entire HRC quota volumes well ahead of 31 December. Notably, South Korea has nearly exhausted its allocated quota volume with merely 5% quota left for the quarter. Others such as the UK, South Korea, and Serbia still have balances remaining.

Any EU imports beyond the allocated quota attract a 50% ad valorem duty which is further discouraging out-of-quota volumes.

Turkiye, which holds the largest individual HRC quota of 402,733 tonnes (t), has exhausted its entire allocation well before the end of the quarter. The early utilisation reflects rising CBAM-related uncertainty, prompting exporting countries to advance shipments and utilise their HRC quota volumes early to avoid any potential carbon-cost related impact.

India, which has the second-largest individual HRC quota of 227,782 t, has also utilised its allocation fully, leaving no remaining balance. In the CRC category, India has so far exhausted around 47% of its 165,051 t quota, with approximately 88,268 t still remaining for this period.

Countries like the UK, Serbia, and South Korea still have a sizable portion of their HRC quota allocations remaining. South Korea exhausted nearly 95% i.e. 154,248 t of its allocated quota of 163,078 t for the quarter, with 8,830 t of allocation remaining. While Serbia has exhausted 77,024 t of its quota volume amounting to 53% of its 144,088 t quota, with 67,063 t left for the quarter. The UK has utilised 5,942 t, which is just 4% of its 140,943 t allocation for the quarter.

For cold-rolled coils (CRC), a similar utilisation pattern is observed across origins. South Korea has used a substantial share of its allocation, exhausting nearly 77,689 t, equivalent to 81% of its 95,726 t quarterly quota, with 18,036 t still remaining. Serbia, meanwhile, has utilised 15,197 t or 36% of its 41,670 t, leaving a balance of 26,472 t. Furthermore, The UK has exhausted nearly 87,914 t or 50% of its CRC quota of 1,75,442 t, leaving around 87,527 t of its allocation unutilised.

Outlook

In the near term, the EU import trends are likely to continue being shaped by CBAM-related uncertainty, which is prompting mills to advance shipments earlier than usual. Whether this pattern extends to all origins will depend entirely on how European demand develops. If end-use sectors show even a slight improvement, import bookings may pick up and the remaining quotas may be consumed quickly. However, if demand stays weak and inventories remain high, several countries may still end the quarter with unused balances.