India: Tier-1 mills hike rebar prices by up to INR 1,000/t ($12/t) for early-Feb’25

• Inventories drop by around 20% m-o-m
• IF rebar prices edge up m-o-m in Jan’25

Indian tier-1 mills raised rebar list prices by INR 500-1,000/tonne (t) ($6-12/t) for early-February 2025 compared to end-January 2025 levels, sources informed BigMint. Post revision, list prices hovered at around INR 52,000-53,000/t ($594-605/t) on a landed basis.

It should also be noted that rebar inventories with mills declined by around 20% m-o-m in early-February 2025, BigMint heard from market sources.

Update on projects

• The Minerals and Metals division of Larsen & Toubro (L&T) will set up a pellet and direct reduction iron (DRI) plant for a major steel producer in the MENA region, supporting global decarbonisation efforts with advanced technologies.
• In January 2025, NCC Limited secured an order worth INR 424.79 crore (excluding GST) for its transportation division from the state government, excluding any internal orders.

Factors behind market dynamics

1. IF rebar prices edge up m-o-m: Induction furnace (IF) rebar trade prices edged up m-o-m in January 2025 amid moderate buying activities across markets. Manufacturers initially offered discounts and reduced list prices to liquidate their material. However, prices increased towards the end of the month amid improved buying activities. Inventory idling time reduced m-o-m to around 10-12 days across markets. As per BigMint’s assessment, IF rebar prices edged up by INR 200/t ($2/t) m-o-m to INR 47,100/t ($538/t) exw-Mumbai in January 2025.

The price gap for BF-IF rebars stood at INR 5,000-5,500/t ($57-63/t) in the Mumbai market. Notably, IF rebars command a 65-70% share of the market.

2. Property registrations rise y-o-y: Property registrations in Mumbai, the country’s largest real estate market, increased by 12% y-o-y to 12,249 units in January 2025 as against 10,900 units in the same period in the previous year, as per data released by Knight Frank India.

On a m-o-m basis, property registrations edged down by 1% compared with 12,415 units in December 2024.

Outlook
A hike in rebar list prices by mills is likely to lift trade tags in the coming days. However, trade activities may remain slow as per the current market scenario.