Indonesia’s thermal coal export shipments registered an 11% m-o-m rise to 31 million tonnes (mn t) in Oct’21, CoalMint’s vessel line-up data revealed.
The monthly rise came against the backdrop of easing of logistic disruptions and a sharp rise in demand ahead of the winter season. However, any major rise was capped due to the soaring Indonesian prices.
Despite a slight correction in end-Oct’21, average prices of the Indonesian mid-CV 5800 GAR were at $202/t last month, up 35% m-o-m.
Export shipments from south Kalimantan rose 23% m-o-m to 9.7 mn t, and from east Kalimantan by 5% to 16.3 mn t. Shipments from Sumatra were at 3.4 mn t, up 52% m-o-m.
However, shipments from north Kalimanatan fell to 1 mn t, down 26% m-o-m.
China’s robust demand lifts exports
China faced a steepening energy crisis last month wherein lower inventories with power plants compelled several provinces to impose power cuts, while factories shut down operations. As a result, traders rushed to book cargoes, lifting Indonesian coal prices to record highs.
Shipments to China were at a whopping 16.1 mn t, up 28% m-o-m, CoalMint vessel lie-up showed.
Miners in Indonesia ramped up production and cargo availability to meet the sharp rise, before the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans to stablise coal prices in China and boost production, bringing down domestic coal prices.
This led to a correction in Indonesian prices that had been rallying since April this year.
Exports to India rise slightly
Indonesia’s thermal coal export shipments to India rose slightly by 3% m-o-m to 5.1 mn t in Oct’21 due to an acute coal shortage in the country. A sharp rise, was, however, not seen due to pre-booked cargoes by Chinese traders.
The domestic supply shortage had compelled Indian importers to book Indonesian cargo at a premium of $10/t over the multi-year high prices.
Exports to other Asian countries
Amid a sharp rise in LNG prices, several Asian countries last month had leaned back on coal imports to secure supplies ahead of winter.
As a result, Indonesian shipments to the Philippines rose to 2.4 mn t, up 26% m-o-m, while shipments to Malaysia were at 1.8 mn t, up 18% m-o-m.
Shipments to Vietnam, however, fell by 9% m-o-m to 0.55 mn t amid its domestic production boost.
Outlook
CoalMint believes export shipments from Indonesia arelikely to remain supported in the upcoming month amid dipping winter temperature in north-east Asia.
Any sharp rise, may, however, remain limited due to China’s rising coal production and lower domestic prices.
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