Vietnam’s finished steel output is expected to decline 5.9% on year to 14 million tonnes in 2020, and its apparent steel consumption may decrease more substantially by 10.7% on year to 21.7 million tonnes this year, Trinh Khoi Nguyen, vice chairman of Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), predicted at 2020 SEAISI e-Conference on July 2.
The forecasts are based on the actual performance of the country’s steel market in the first five months of 2020 and have not fully factored in the impact of COVID-19, according to him.
In the first five months, Vietnam’s finished steel production reached 6 million tonnes and apparent steel consumption 9 million tonnes, he shared.
The ASEAN region has been relying on steel imports to fulfill half of its steel consumption due to its steel undercapacity, and Vietnam, the largest steel exporter and importer in the ASEAN region, is no exception, even with its newly-commissioned steel projects such as the 5 million tonnes/year Formosa Ha Tinh steel project, Mysteel Global understands.
For 2020, it is expected to import 13.9 million tonnes of steel, down 10.8% on year, while its exports are estimated at 6.7 million tonnes for 2020, or up 1.4% on year, according to Nguyen.
Over January-May, Vietnam’s steel imports and exports registered 5.8 million tonnes and 2.8 million tonnes respectively, according to VSA.
Nguyen admitted early this year the pandemic had imposed serious impact on Vietnam’s domestic steel industry, as the domestic steel producers have been highly relying on input materials imported from China.
China has been Vietnam’s largest steel exporter, which contributed to 35% of Vietnam’s total steel imports in 2019, according to the VSA statistics.
The trading activities between Vietnam and China, however, had been slowed or even been temporarily halted for some time in the first quarter by the virus, according to an article shared by SEAISI on April 14.
2019, in general, was a robust year for Vietnam’s steel industry, as its crude steel grew 12.9% on year with the commissioning of new projects, and its apparent steel consumption grew 9% on year, Nguyen shared.
For steel exports, Vietnam’s top destinations were within the ASEAN region, accounting for 62.5% of the total, and China being the second largest destination with a 6.6% share, according to the data shared by him.
Vietnam’s steel statistics for 2019 (source: VSA)
Steel production
| Products | 2018 (‘000 t) | 2019 (‘000 t) | YoY Chg (%) |
| Crude Steel | 15,471 | 17,469 | 12.9 |
| Finished steel | 25,602 | 26,334 | 2.9 |
| -Long products (rebar, wire rods, sections) | 11,093 | 11,271 | 1.6 |
| -HR sheets & strips | 3,439 | 4,130 | 20.1 |
| -CR products | 3,867 | 3,947 | 2.1 |
| -Metallic & color coated products | 4,710 | 4,470 | -5.1 |
| -Welded steel pipes | 2,493 | 2,516 | 0.9 |
Steel consumption
| Products | 2018 (‘000 t) | 2019 (‘000 t) | YoY Chg (%) |
| Long products | 10,790 | 11,190 | 3.7 |
| Flat products | 11,471 | 13,069 | 13.9 |
| Others | 51 | 52 | 2 |
| Total | 22,312 | 24,311 | 9 |
Steel imports/exports
| 2019 Volume (mln t) | YoY Chg (%) | 2019 Value ($ bln) | YoY Chg (%) | |
| Imports | 21 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Exports | 8.1 | 4 | 5.2 | -9 |
This article has been published under an article exchange agreement between Mysteel Global and SteelMint.
Photo credit: World Steel
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