SE Asia largest ferrous scrap buyer- Vietnam has been actively booking imported scrap. Vietnam’s scrap imports totalled 5.12 mn t in Jan-Nov’20 registering an 8% increase y-o-y during CPLY.
Imports from Japan up on tighter US supplies – Despite a slight dip in imports in Nov’ 20 which stood at 0.52 mn t as against 0.55 mn t in Oct’20, overall imports from Japan were up by 9% in Nov’20. SteelMint’s monthly price assessment for bulk H2 scrap stood at $298/t CFR Vietnam in Oct’20, slightly down by 2% m-o-m.
However, imports from the US and Australia have come down sharply on supply concerns. SteelMint’s assessment for bulk US HMS (80:20) stood at $309/t CFR Vietnam in Oct’20, up by 2% m-o-m.
Vietnam bucks the trend with a 2-2.5% GDP growth forecast
Construction activities have increased during October and Vietnam took a prosperous step after the epidemic due to increased demand, according to VSA. Despite numerous challenges this year due to COVID-19, the Vietnam government forecasts 2.0-2.5% GDP growth in 2020, while outlook for all other countries in the ASEAN region is negative, as per reports.
As per SEAISI, by Nov’20, most ASEAN-6 governments have announced their forecast for CY’20 and CY’21. It is a given that 2020 will be a bad year for most countries in ASEAN with the exception of Vietnam, where the economy is expected to expand. Vietnam, having controlled the pandemic well, witnessed expansions in the construction sector which grew by 5.7% q-o-q in Q3 CY’20.
Country’s crude steel production registered 21.9 mn t in the 10M CY’20 as compared to 17 mn t in CPLY, as per WSA data.
Outlook – Considering tighter scrap availability, Vietnam’s imported scrap prices are likely to remain elevated in the coming months. Scrap import volumes may remain strong considering active Vietnam billet bookings made to China.
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