- Government rice stocks neared 39 MMT, while USDA projects closing stocks at 50 MMT.
- Private inventories eased to 10–11 MMT, supporting ample domestic supply and exports.
Public procurement supports comfortable supply outlook; USDA closing stocks remain near record highs
India’s rice stock position continued to strengthen through the first half of 2026, with government-held inventories rebounding sharply while private sector holdings moderated after peaking in late 2025. The trend reflects robust procurement, record domestic production and ample availability, reinforcing India’s position as the world’s largest rice exporter. According to the chart, government agencies are estimated to hold around 39 MMT of rice in June 2026, up from nearly 30 MMT in January 2026, while private inventories have declined to around 10–11 MMT from nearly 17 MMT at the start of the year. USDA estimates India’s closing rice stocks at approximately 50 MMT, the highest level in the observed period.
Government stocks rebound on strong procurement
Government rice inventories declined during October 2024–January 2025 due to continuous offtake under the Public Distribution System (PDS), welfare schemes and open market sales. Fresh kharif procurement, however, steadily replenished stocks throughout 2025 and accelerated in 2026. As a result, government-held rice stocks have risen from around 30 MMT in January 2026 to nearly 39 MMT in June 2026, indicating comfortable availability for food security programmes and market interventions. Recent official data also shows that rice stocks in government warehouses (including unmilled paddy) reached 68.43 MMT as of 1 June 2026, up 15% year-on-year and well above the July 1 buffer target of 13.5 MMT.
Private inventories normalize after seasonal accumulation
Private players accumulated rice aggressively during late 2025 amid strong export demand and expectations of firm domestic prices. Estimated private holdings increased from around 12 MMT in October 2024 to nearly 17 MMT during December 2025–January 2026. However, with abundant government procurement and comfortable market availability, private inventories have gradually declined to around 10.5 MMT by June 2026, reducing speculative holding requirements and improving market liquidity.
USDA projects comfortable closing stocks
The USDA’s estimated closing stocks have steadily improved from around 43 MMT in October 2024 to nearly 50 MMT by May–June 2026, reflecting higher production and stable domestic consumption. India produced a record 154.02 MMT of rice in the 2025/26 crop year, supported by favourable weather and expanded acreage, further strengthening the country’s supply outlook.
Export outlook remains favourable
The comfortable inventory position provides significant flexibility for exports. India accounts for around 40% of global rice exports, maintaining its dominant position in international trade. Record government stocks are expected to support export availability despite concerns over potential El Niño-related weather risks later in the year.
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