US: Ferrous scrap export index falls by $2/t w-o-w amid slow trade post-holiday season

• Turkish mills avoid restocking on sluggish steel sales
• Material diverted to domestic mills amid slow exports

US ferrous scrap export prices fell by $2/t w-o-w. The market remained slow after the Christmas and New Year holiday season, with purchasing activity yet to pick up.

A sell-side participant stated that the export markets on both the East and West Coasts were slow, resulting in a higher supply for domestic mills, amid plentiful scrap availability.

In the US domestic market, “Export activity has not surged, but domestic demand remains better, as most players need to restock.”

Another sell-side participant stated, “Mills will likely need to restock their raw material inventories after depleting them at the end of the year.”

“Scrap flows are weak in certain regions, but expect the market to see stability in the initial months of the year,” said one trader.

FOB assessments (US East Coast, bulk)

• HMS (80:20) decreased by $2/t w-o-w to $319/t.
• Shredded fell by $2/t w-o-w to $339/t.

CFR assessments (bulk)

• HMS (80:20) was at $343/t CFR Turkiye, a dip of $3/t w-o-w.
• HMS (80:20) stood at $348/t CFR Vietnam, down by $4/t w-o-w.
• HMS (80:20) was at $364/t CFR Chattogram, stable w-o-w.

Buyer side update

Turkiye: Turkish demand for US-origin imported ferrous scrap remained subdued, as mills refrained from restocking inventory, driven by weak demand for long products and sluggish local steel sales. This led to a decline in bids.

This week, three deals were heard from the US to the Mediterranean and Aegean region at $345-346/t for HMS and $365/t for shredded and bonus on a CFR Turkiye basis.

Some market participants remained optimistic, with a US-based recycler expecting prices to recover to $350/t CFR, while a Baltic-based recycler predicted stability, targeting $348-349/t CFR for Baltic material.

The disparity between bids and offers, coupled with high collection costs, continued to put pressure on sellers. As a result, Turkish mills were cautious in their purchasing, with limited restocking activity, amid ample material available in the market.

Bangladesh: Bangladesh’s imported scrap market witnessed slow inquiries for bulk material, with significantly lower bids than suppliers’ asking prices, resulting in a $1-2/t w-o-w drop, particularly for scrap from the US. Despite offers at $365-370/t, buyers bid below $360/t, indicating a lack of strong demand for US-origin scrap.

Outlook

There are mixed expectations for the US ferrous scrap market in the new year. Buyers and sellers expect a range of outcomes, from price declines to stability, with a slight increase eventually. A leading prime scrap seller expects prices to remain steady in January, with the possibility of a rise in February.