US coal production is expected to fall in 2018, as per the projections made by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System responsible for collecting, analysing, and disseminating energy information; which is working as a part of the US department of Energy.
In its short-term outlook report, EIA has predicted a decline in US coal production and electricity generation from coal, while expecting a rise in electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants in 2018.
US Coal Production
EIA has forecasted US coal production to fall by 2% to 756 MMst (Million Metric Short Tons, 1 MMst is approximately equal to 0.9071 MnT) in 2018. The estimated coal production in 2018 is 2% lower than the actual production of 774 MMst attained in 2017.
The decrease in coal production is largely attributable to a forecasted decline of 5% in domestic coal consumption in 2018, with most of the decline expected in electric power sector.
US coal consumption is expected at 679 MMst in 2018 against the actual consumption of 717 MMst coal in 2017.
A forecast decline of 4% in coal exports also contributes to lower expected coal production in 2018. US coal production is expected to fell further by 2% to 738 MMst in 2019.
US Electricity Share in 2018
EIA has projected the share of US electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017, to 34% in 2018 and 2019. On the other hand, the forecasted share for coal-fired electricity generation is likely to remain at 28% in 2018 and 2019, down from 30% in 2017.
The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and is forecast to be 20% in 2018 and 19% in 2019. Non hydro-power renewables provided slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017 and are expected to provide more than 10% in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydro-power was 7% in 2017 and is forecast to be about the same in 2018 and 2019.
Estimates for Renewables
Wind Energy generation in the US was averaged 697,000 Mega Watt-hours per day (MWh/d) in 2017. Wind generation is expected to rise to 746,000 MWh/d in 2018 and to 777,000 MWh/d in 2019.
EIA has anticipated that if factors such as precipitation and snowpack remain as forecast, conventional hydro-power is forecast to generate 752,000 MWh/d in 2019, which would make it the first year that wind generation exceeds hydro-power generation in the US.
Leave a Reply