UAE: Domestic scrap index rises amid Gulf tensions, export trade slows on logistics uncertainty

• Logistical disruptions tighten Middle East scrap flows
• Rebar demand remains cautious amid no immediate demand

BigMint’s UAE domestic ferrous scrap index increased by AED 31/t ($8/t) w-o-w to AED 1,246/t ($339/t) on 4 March, as cautious trading activity emerged amid disruptions linked to ongoing Gulf tensions.

Scrap flows within the Middle East tightened over the past two to three days, with sellers hesitant to commit to fresh bookings amid uncertainty surrounding logistics.

In the rebar market, several traders preferred to wait for confirmed transaction levels before committing to fresh purchases, citing uncertainty over how much of the announced price increases the market can absorb and the pace of construction-linked demand

Export uncertainty amid Shipping disruptions

Export market activity slowed notably as suppliers withheld offers while assessing operational risks. Traders reported that transit delays, higher bunker fuel costs, and possible vessel rerouting could push landed scrap costs higher in the coming weeks. Shipping lines are also evaluating potential war-risk surcharges on container cargo, which may further increase freight expenses.

A UAE-based trader said operational disruptions have added further complexity, with some ports temporarily suspending activity and certain shipping lines reportedly declining new bookings on specific routes. “Many suppliers are holding back fresh offers for now, making it difficult to determine workable price levels in the short term,” the trader said.

Participants noted that the recent price uptick partly reflects a pause in shipments from UAE-based suppliers, which has tightened scrap availability across the region. The UAE remained Pakistan’s largest scrap supplier in 2025, exporting more than 1 million tonnes, making any disruption particularly significant for South Asian buyers.

Outlook

With freight costs rising and vessel movements becoming increasingly uncertain, traders expect heightened volatility in South Asian scrap markets in the coming days. Even a short-term disruption in Gulf shipments could tighten regional supply, with Pakistan–heavily reliant on UAE-origin scrap–likely to feel the immediate impact, while India may face temporary interruptions in cargoes from Bahrain and Kuwait.