- Weak steel demand, continued scrap export ban weigh on prices
- Emirates Steel rolls over Aug rebar prices amid slow order inflows
The UAE’s domestic ferrous scrap market remained largely stable during the week ended 24 July, although market participants increasingly expect a price correction from 1 August 2026, as improving domestic scrap availability, subdued steel demand, and the continued export ban weigh on sentiment. While transactions continued at prevailing levels, buyers largely restricted procurement to immediate production requirements, expecting lower prices in the coming weeks.
According to BigMint’s assessment, processed HMS 80:20 scrap was heard around AED 1,009-1,010/t ($275/t) DAP, while LMS remained stable at AED 820-850/t ($223-231/t).
Market participants expect HMS 80:20 prices to ease towards AED 850-880/t ($231-240/t) from August, while prices of processed grades such as HMS, shredded, PNS, and fabrication scrap are also expected to decline as trapped domestic material continues to increase availability.
Market participants noted that mills have tightened procurement practices to manage inventories. Several buyers were reportedly accepting only minimum cargoes of around 250-300 t with strict unloading windows, while others remained reluctant to place new orders as they continued working through previously contracted material.
The market continued to absorb the impact of the UAE’s temporary ferrous scrap export ban (10 June-8 October 2026), which has increased domestic scrap availability. Although limited volumes were reportedly routed through Oman, participants said these had little impact on overall supply.
A Dubai-based scrap trader said, “The domestic market remains well supplied, and buyers are waiting for lower prices before making fresh commitments. Most expect corrections from August as availability continues to improve.”
Another local supplier added, “Higher-value processed grades are under the greatest pressure, while lighter materials are comparatively stable. The first week of August will provide a clearer indication of market direction.”
Market participants are also monitoring the temporary closure of the Arabian Gulf Steel Industries (AGSI) yard, which will remain shut for five days from 25-29 July as part of an operational streamlining programme. The company has announced a gate-in cut-off of 24 July at 11:59 pm, with all vehicles entering before the deadline to be unloaded before the closure. Operations are scheduled to resume on 30 July at 5:00 am. While the shutdown may temporarily delay scrap inflows and prompt suppliers to advance deliveries, market participants do not expect it to materially disrupt raw material availability or domestic rebar supply, given comfortable inventories and subdued procurement activity.
Steel market developments
Domestic steel demand remained subdued, with construction activity showing only limited improvement. Mills continued to manage production cautiously and prioritised inventory control over aggressive raw material procurement. Reflecting the weak demand environment, the UAE rebar market entered the August sales cycle on a cautious note, with the country’s benchmark producer, Emirates Steel, rolling over domestic rebar prices from July. The decision highlights mills’ efforts to protect margins while remaining competitive amid slow order inflows and cautious purchasing by distributors and end-users.
The UAE’s billet market received a longer-term boost after HBIS Group’s Tangshan branch secured Emirates Conformity Assessment Scheme (ECAS) certification, expanding the pool of approved billet suppliers and further strengthening China’s presence in the UAE market.
Meanwhile, the export ban continued to reshape regional trade flows, with UAE-origin scrap offers into Pakistan remaining largely absent and prompting buyers to source more cargoes from the UK and Europe. Although limited volumes were reportedly moving through alternative routes, domestic scrap availability remained comfortable.
Outlook
BigMint expects the UAE domestic scrap market to remain under pressure in the coming weeks as ample scrap availability, cautious steel demand, and the continued export ban encourage buyers to delay procurement. Market participants widely expect price corrections from 1 August, particularly for processed grades. The pace of any recovery will largely depend on construction activity, domestic steel demand, and whether export restrictions continue to keep material within the local market.
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