Turkiye: Imported ferrous scrap prices show slight decline amid cautious mill buying

• Turkish scrap prices slightly down amid supply tightness
• Mills cautious buying, weak rebar demand persists

Imported deep-sea scrap prices in Turkiye fell week on week (w-o-w), although seasonal supply tightness continued to support higher price levels. Scrap collection rates are expected to remain limited during the year-end period. Turkish mills reportedly still needed cargoes for end-January shipments but remained cautious due to weaker downstream rebar demand and softer price expectations.

Price Assessments

• US-origin bulk HMS 80:20 was assessed at $368/t CFR Turkiye, down $2/t w-o-w.
• HMS 80:20 from the US East Coast was assessed at $338/t FOB, down $1/t w-o-w.

The scrap-to-rebar spread hovered around $195-200/t, with rebar export offers at $565-570/t FOB.

Market Scenario

Offers for US-origin HMS 80:20 were reported at around $370/t CFR. Market trader noted that “US secondary suppliers remain firm on collection prices, and heavy snowfall is further restricting inflows, Meanwhile, in the EU, most secondary contractors and vendors are sold out and have started their holiday period.”

A market participants highlighted that Turkish mills are not actively chasing purchases; they may act if a seller is under pressure, but there is little urgency on the sell side, and most European suppliers are already sold out.

Domestic market update

Finished steel demand in Turkiye softened after a brief rise in November, and participants do not expect any significant improvement through year-end. Domestic Turkish scrap demand remained subdued, with mills hesitant to buy at higher prices amid weak downstream rebar demand, despite needing cargoes for January restocking. Some mills bought billet from Kardemir, but most are taking a wait-and-see approach due to the soft rebar market.

Outlook

We expect market sentiment to remain cautious through December. While some participants expect prices to remain broadly stable through year-end, tighter supply and potential mill restocking in January could push prices toward $370/t CFR in the near term. Overall activity is likely to stay subdued until rebar demand strengthens.