- Prices show uptrend amid limited number of sellers
- Rising rebar sales keep domestic market optimistic
Turkish deep-sea imported ferrous bulk scrap prices rose by $5/tonne (t) w-o-w, marking a rebound from the lowest levels last seen in June 2022 for HMS (80:20) bulk.
The workable price for HMS (80:20) has risen to $340/t CFR, marking a significant increase from last week when the market was thought to have bottomed out.
The increase was supported by sustained demand from mills for February delivery material and a rise in steel sales domestically.
Market sources indicated that Turkish mills have secured at least 20-22 deep-sea scrap cargoes for February shipments. Although mills have been purchasing less deep-sea scrap than usual over the past two months, they are expected to make up for the shortfall in February, assuming finished steel sales continue to be strong.
Market scenario
A trader noted, “There are limited sellers now and European scrap dock prices are stable at Euro 285-290/t ($296-301/t), with suppliers expecting to push prices higher on anticipated continued Turkish mill demand for February shipments.”
A Turkish mill source commented, steel producers in Turkiye were actively procuring scrap to fulfill their requirements. “It appears mills won’t be able to find cheap scrap anymore.”
A UK-based recycler mentioned that recent declines in bulk freight rates were reducing pressure on CFR Turkish price levels. However, he noted that the euro-US dollar volatility this week has had little impact on European recyclers’ prices so far.
An European trader said that, “Mills were actively seeking deep-sea scrap, suggesting that the market may be bouncing back from its lowest point.”
A trading firm based in Turkiye informed, that London Metal Exchange scrap prices were also rising, and it was anticipated that China will return from the Lunar New Year holidays with a price recovery, as is typical. Thus, it appears, the Turkish market will gradually rebound from its recent lows.”
BigMint’s price assessments
- US-origin HMS (80:20) bulk scrap was assessed at $340/t CFR Turkiye, up $5/t w-o-w
- Bulk HMS (80:20) from the US East Coast stood at $317/t FOB, also up $7/t w-o-w
The scrap-to-rebar spread remained narrowed w-o-w at $210-215/t, as rebar export prices stood at $555-560/t FOB.
In the past seven days, approximately 6-8 deals were concluded for Turkiye, with 3-4 seen from the US and 2-3 from the EU. Deal prices of HMS ranged from $336-340/t, while shredded were at 354-359/t.
Outlook
While fundamental market conditions suggest limited potential for immediate price increases, deep-sea HMS (80:20) scrap prices could reach $345/t CFR in the coming days. This potential upward movement is predicated on external factors, including developments in China, potential shifts in US trade policy (with reference to President Trump of the US), and overall positive sentiment within the US market. Near-term forecasts anticipate a more modest increase of $5-10/t.
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