Turkiye: Imported bulk scrap prices remain stable w-o-w; mills shift focus to Sep’25 shipments

• Rising domestic rebar prices may drive up scrap demand
• Interest rate cuts may boost liquidity, bookings

Turkiye’s deep-sea ferrous scrap import prices remained stable w-o-w at around $347/tonne (t) CFR, as most mills wrapped up bookings for their required August cargoes, leaving minimal scope for further orders this month for August deliveries.

As a result, both mills and exporters are expected to shift their focus to September shipments. A sustained increase in rebar price tags could drive up scrap demand.

Despite the upward momentum in rebar prices, scrap tags have not picked up, amid limited activity in the spot market.

Around 8-10 bulk deals were heard this week, all concluded within a narrow range of $340-347/t CFR, as mills reassessed their inventory needs ahead of August production schedules.

BigMint’s price assessments

• US-origin HMS 80:20 bulk scrap stood at $347/t CFR Turkiye, stable w-o-w.
• Bulk HMS 80:20 from the US East Coast was at $318/t FOB, up $3 /t w-o-w.

The Turkish rebar-to-scrap spread stood at $185-190/t, with workable levels for Turkish rebars heard up to $535-540/t FOB.

Market updates

According to mill-side participant, deal levels for EU- and US-origin HMS 80:20 remained in the $340-347/t range, extending the trend seen in the past 30 days. Despite the steady prices, suppliers continued to maintain a bullish outlook, but the market has yet to reflect any meaningful upward movement.

New offers from the US and Baltic regions emerged at $350/t CFR, while European cargoes were indicated slightly lower at $340-345/t CFR, suggesting growing confidence among traders about a possible upward shift.

A Turkish mill source noted, “Participants are waiting for Central Bank’s interest rate decision this week. Several August cargoes are already booked.”

Rebar market updates

Turkish mills raised domestic rebar offers by $10/t w-o-w to $535-550/t exw, depending on the region, driven by high production costs and signs of a recovery in the Chinese market. The uptick in Chinese rebar tags led mills to adopt a stronger pricing stance.

However, domestic demand remained weak as buyers remained cautious ahead of the Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday. Local traders noted that mills resisted providing discounts, and some restocking may occur if sentiment improves.

Outlook

With August requirements mostly met, attention is turning to September bookings. Sellers remain bullish, and traders expect US-origin HMS 80:20 offers to soon reach the $350-355/t CFR if sentiment strengthens.

Meanwhile, the Turkish central bank reduced interest rates by 300 basis points to 43% on 24 July. This move is expected to boost liquidity and economic confidence, and importers may take advantage of this rate cut to start booking.