- Turkish mills eye pig iron, slabs, billets as alternatives
- Mills hesitant to book for Apr amid slow rebar sales
Turkish deep-sea scrap prices remained largely stable, inching up by $1/t w-o-w. Buyers remained cautious, resisting sellers’ offers as weak rebar sales and domestic unrest weighed on demand.
HMS collection costs in the Benelux region were reported at EUR 310-315/t ($335-341/t) delivered to docks during mid-week, while Baltic costs stood at EUR 300-305/t ($324-330/t).
According to BigMint’s bulk scrap trade tracker, 3-4 deals were concluded in the past week, primarily from Europe at $375/t and one from the US for HMS 85:15 at $385/t CFR Turkiye.
BigMint’s price assessments
- US-origin HMS 80:20 bulk scrap stood at $382/t CFR Turkiye, inching up by $1/t w-o-w.
- Bulk HMS 80:20 from the US East Coast was at $359/t FOB, stable w-o-w.
The Turkish scrap-to-rebar spread fell w-o-w to $191-192/t. Rebar export prices inched up w-o-w to $573-575/t FOB.
An official with a mill observed: “Mills may explore alternative production methods or even reduce output in response to firm scrap prices. Sellers may not consider that mills could cut production and temporarily rely on billets and slabs.”
As per some scrap-yard owners in the US, domestic collection is slow, and sellers are holding firm, preventing prices from falling in Turkiye. Loading shortages are also adding pressure.
Another mill-side source noted that “April booking time is running out, but mills remain uninterested despite multiple cargo offers.”
A market participant noted that: “Rebar export levels are still under pressure, while political concerns are keeping Turkiye preoccupied.”
Buyers see acceptable scrap levels at $374-375/t CFR, with only a few willing to go as high as $378/t CFR. However, US suppliers remain firm at $384-385/t CFR, showing no inclination to lower their offers.
Meanwhile, demand for EU-origin material has softened, with bids dropping to $370-372/t CFR, while offers remain in the $375-378/t CFR range.
According to market participants, indicative offers for US/Baltic-origin premium HMS 80:20 were reported at $380-385/t CFR, with most activity concentrated at the lower end. Meanwhile, EU-origin HMS 80:20 saw tradable values mostly at $375-380/t CFR, though buyers held firm at $379-380/t CFR or lower.
Domestic market scenario
Amid rising scrap prices, Turkish mills have shown increasing interest in pig iron, slabs, and billets as alternative raw materials. However, overall steel mill procurement remained cautious due to persistent market uncertainty and weak rebar demand in both domestic and export markets. At the same time, scrap collectors faced tight supply and high collection costs, adding further pressure on the market.
In response to the Turkish lira’s depreciation against the US dollar, domestic steelmakers raised their lira-denominated scrap purchase prices. Further, Kardemir increased its DKP grade and extra grade scrap purchase prices by TRY 300/t to TRY 14,000/t and TRY 13,765/t.
Outlook
US exporters are expected to remain cautious, keeping a close watch on the US-Canada trade war and ongoing political unrest in Turkiye. Market sentiment is likely to stay mixed due to uncertainty over protests and their impact on rebar sales.
A market insider noted, “Nobody wants to back down; so many producers are holding off until next week. Hopefully, the start of the construction season will bring in some improvement.” As a result, participants expect relative price stability in the short term.
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